{"id":5283,"date":"2025-11-24T08:00:59","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T03:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/?p=5283"},"modified":"2025-11-23T10:12:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T05:12:22","slug":"uzbekistan-upgraded-to-bb-on-strong-growth-and-economic-reforms-outlook-stable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/press\/uzbekistan-upgraded-to-bb-on-strong-growth-and-economic-reforms-outlook-stable\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P Global kuchli o\u02bbsish va iqtisodiy islohotlar tufayli O\u02bbzbekiston reytingini \u201cBB\u201d ga ko\u02bbtardi; prognoz \u201cBarqaror\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><em>S&amp;P Global Ratings xalqaro reyting agentligi O\u2018zbekiston Respublikasining xorijiy va milliy valyutadagi uzoq muddatli suveren kredit reytingini &laquo;BB-&raquo; dan &laquo;BB&raquo; darajasiga ko\u2018tardi. Reyting bo\u2018yicha prognoz \u2013 &laquo;Barqaror&raquo;. Shu bilan birga, agentlik qisqa muddatli reytingni &laquo;B&raquo; darajasida tasdiqladi hamda valyutani o\u2018tkazish va konvertatsiya qilish xatari bahosini &laquo;BB-&raquo; dan &laquo;BB+&raquo; gacha oshirdi. Ushbu qaror barqaror iqtisodiy o\u2018sish, mamlakat tashqi pozitsiyasining yaxshilanishi va davom etayotgan tarkibiy islohotlarga asoslangan.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"5\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Reyting harakatining asoslari<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"6\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Agentlik so\u2018nggi yillarda O\u2018zbekistonning iqtisodiy siyosati sezilarli darajada mustahkamlanganini qayd etmoqda. Bu energetika sektoridagi islohotlarning davom ettirilishi, tariflarning to\u2018g\u2018irlanishi, shaffoflikning oshishi va hukumatning uzoq muddatli o\u2018sish salohiyatini qo\u2018llab-quvvatlashga qaratilgan investitsiya loyihalarini amalga oshirishga bo\u2018lgan e\u2019tibori bilan tasdiqlanadi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"7\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">O\u2018zbekistonning sof davlat qarzi o\u2018xshash reytingga ega mamlakatlarga nisbatan mo\u2018tadil bo\u2018lib qolmoqda, bunda uzoq muddatli to\u2018lov muddatlari va past foiz stavkalariga ega rasmiy tashqi qarzning ustunligi muhim omil hisoblanadi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"8\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Mamlakatning tashqi pozitsiyasi respublikaning asosiy eksport tovari bo\u2018lgan oltin narxining yuqoriligi hisobiga sezilarli darajada mustahkamlandi. Markaziy bankning xalqaro zaxiralari 2023-yildan buyon ikki baravardan ko\u2018proqqa oshdi va 2025-yil oktabr oyi oxiriga kelib 59 milliard AQSH dollariga yetdi, bu esa YAIMning qariyb 44 foizini tashkil etadi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>&laquo;Barqaror&raquo; prognoz va reyting o\u2018zgarishi ssenariylari<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">&laquo;Barqaror&raquo; prognoz bir tomondan O\u2018zbekistonning barqaror iqtisodiy o\u2018sishi va davlat qarzining qulay profili, ikkinchi tomondan esa tashqi va fiskal leverijning ehtimoliy o\u2018sishi bilan bog\u2018liq xatarlar o\u2018rtasidagi muvozanatni aks ettiradi.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"11,0,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Ijobiy ssenariy:<\/strong> Agar iqtisodiy ko\u2018rsatkichlarga zarar yetkazmagan holda budjet taqchilligi va joriy operatsiyalar hisobining taqchilligi qisqarsa, reytinglar oshirilishi mumkin.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"11,1,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Salbiy ssenariy:<\/strong> Agar tashqi va fiskal ko\u2018rsatkichlar kutilganidan ko\u2018ra ko\u2018proq zaiflashsa (masalan, savdo shartlarining yomonlashuvi, davlat xarajatlarining o\u2018sishi yoki qarz jalb qilish narxining oshishi tufayli) yoki davlat korxonalari sektorining katta hajmini inobatga olgan holda kutilmagan shartli majburiyatlar yuzaga kelsa, reyting pasaytirlishi mumkin. Shuningdek, iqtisodiy o\u2018sish prognoz qilinganidan sezilarli darajada past bo\u2018lsa, bu reytingga salbiy ta\u2019sir ko\u2018rsatishi mumkin.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"12\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Iqtisodiy profil: barqaror o\u2018sish va investitsiyalar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"13\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">O\u2018zbekiston MDH mintaqasida eng yuqori o\u2018sish dinamikasiga ega mamlakatlardan biri bo\u2018lib turibdi. So\u2018nggi sakkiz yil ichida (2017-yildagi liberallashtirish boshlanganidan beri) o\u2018rtacha iqtisodiy o\u2018sish yiliga deyarli 6 foizni tashkil etdi.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"14,0,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Joriy dinamika:<\/strong> 2025-yilning dastlabki 9 oyida iqtisodiyot yillik hisobda 7,6 foizga o\u2018sdi (2024-yilning shu davridagi 6,6 foizga nisbatan). O\u2018sish axborot va aloqa, qurilish, turizm va savdo sohalaridagi yuqori ko\u2018rsatkichlar bilan ta\u2019minlanmoqda.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"14,1,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Prognoz:<\/strong> Agentlik 2025\u20132028-yillar oralig\u2018ida YAIMning yillik o\u2018sishi o\u2018rtacha 6,3 foiz bo\u2018lishini prognoz qilmoqda. Bunga barqaror iste\u2019mol talabi hamda energetika, tog\u2018-kon sanoati va infratuzilmani rivojlantirishga qaratilgan yirik davlat investitsiyalari yordam beradi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"14,2,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Investitsiyalar:<\/strong> Iqtisodiy o\u2018sish ko\u2018p jihatdan investitsiyalar hisobiga ta\u2019minlanmoqda. Investitsiyalarning YAIMga nisbati 32 foiz atrofida bo\u2018lib, bu dunyodagi eng yuqori ko\u2018rsatkichlardan biridir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"14,3,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Aholi jon boshiga YAIM:<\/strong> 2025-yilda ushbu ko\u2018rsatkich 3 500 AQSH dollariga yetishi kutilmoqda (2019-yildagi 2 000 dollarga nisbatan).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"15\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Strukturaviy islohotlar va davlatning roli<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"16\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hukumat 2017-yilda boshlangan iqtisodiyotda davlatning rolini kamaytirish kursini davom ettirmoqda.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"17,0,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Energetika islohotlari:<\/strong> Elektr energiyasi va gaz tariflarining xarajatlarni qoplash darajasiga qadar to\u2018g\u2018irlanishi (2023-yil oktabrda boshlangan) davlat energetika subsidiyalarining qisqarishiga olib keldi. Subsidiyalar hajmi 2023-yildagi 1,5 mlrd dollardan (YAIMning 1,4 foizi) 2024-yilda 0,8 mlrd dollargacha (YAIMning 0,7 foizi) kamaydi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"17,1,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Xususiylashtirish:<\/strong> 2021-yildan 2025-yilning birinchi yarmigacha bo\u2018lgan davrda xususiylashtirishdan tushgan daromadlar 3,7 mlrd dollarni (YAIMning 3,2 foizi) tashkil etdi. Eng yirik bitim &laquo;Ipoteka-bank&raquo; nazorat paketining sotilishi bo\u2018ldi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"17,2,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Milliy investitsiya fondi:<\/strong> 2024-yilda Franklin Templeton kompaniyasi boshqaruvidagi Milliy investitsiya fondi (UzNIF) tashkil etildi. 15 ta yirik davlat korxonasi va banklarining aksiyalarini mahalliy va xalqaro birjalarga joylashtirish rejalashtirilgan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"17,3,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>JST:<\/strong> 2026-yilda Jahon savdo tashkilotiga a\u2019zo bo\u2018lish bo\u2018yicha tayyorgarlik ishlari olib borilmoqda.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Davlat-xususiy sheriklik (DXSH)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"19\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">DXSH loyihalari tez sur\u2019atlar bilan kengaymoqda. Imzolangan shartnomalarning umumiy qiymati 2024-yil oxiriga kelib YAIMning 27 foiziga baholandi. Hukumat 2024\u20132030-yillarga mo\u2018ljallangan taxminan 30 mlrd dollarlik yangi loyihalar ro\u2018yxatini tasdiqladi.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"20,0,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Tarmoqlar:<\/strong> Loyihalarning 93 foizi energetika sohasiga, shundan 83 foizi qayta tiklanuvchi energiyaga to\u2018g\u2018ri keladi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"20,1,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Maqsadlar:<\/strong> 2030-yilga borib energiya balansida qayta tiklanuvchi energiya manbalari ulushini 54 foizga yetkazish rejalashtirilgan (hozirgi 20 foizdan). Xususan, Saudiya Arabistonining ACWA Power kompaniyasi 7,5 mlrd dollar sarmoya kiritishni rejalashtirgan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"20,2,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Cheklovlar:<\/strong> Yangi DXSH tuzilmasi xatarlarni nazorat qilish uchun 2025-yilda majburiyatlar bo\u2018yicha 6,5 mlrd dollarlik limitni ko\u2018zda tutadi.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"21\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Tashqi iqtisodiy aloqalar va geosiyosat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"22\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Global noaniqliklarga qaramay, O\u2018zbekiston iqtisodiyoti tashqi shoklarga muvaffaqiyatli moslashmoqda.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"23,0,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Pul o\u2018tkazmalari:<\/strong> 2025-yilning birinchi yarmida pul o\u2018tkazmalari oqimi 27 foizga o\u2018sib, 8,2 mlrd dollarni (YAIMning 7,1 foizi) tashkil etdi. Asosiy qismi (78 foiz) Rossiyadan kelayotgan bo\u2018lsa-da, AQSH, Germaniya, Polsha va Janubiy Koreya hisobiga manbalar diversifikatsiyasi kuzatilmoqda.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"23,1,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Rossiya bilan savdo:<\/strong> 2025-yilning birinchi yarmida RF bilan tovar aylanmasi taxminan 5 foizga o\u2018sib, 6,0 mlrd dollarni tashkil etdi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"23,2,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Oltin:<\/strong> Oltin tovar eksportining qariyb yarmini va Markaziy bank xalqaro zaxiralarining 80 foizdan ortig\u2018ini tashkil qiladi. Metall narxining yuqoriligi mamlakatning tashqi pozitsiyasini mustahkamladi.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"24\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Fiskal va monetar siyosat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"25\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hukumat 2025-yilda budjet taqchilligini YAIMga nisbatan 3,0 foiz darajasida ushlab turish maqsadiga erishish yo\u2018lida bormoqda.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"26,0,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Daromadlar:<\/strong> Oltin narxining rekord darajasi korporativ daromad solig\u2018i, yer qa\u2019ridan foydalanish solig\u2018i va dividendlar hisobiga budjet tushumlarini qo\u2018llab-quvvatlamoqda.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"26,1,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Xarajatlar:<\/strong> Energiya tariflarini liberallashtirish joriy yilda budjet mablag\u2018larining YAIMga nisbatan taxminan 1 foizini tejash imkonini beradi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"26,2,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Taqchillik prognozi:<\/strong> S&amp;P 2025\u20132028-yillarda budjet taqchilligi o\u2018rtacha yillik 3 foizni tashkil etishini prognoz qilmoqda, bu 2022\u20132024-yillarda kuzatilgan 4 foizlik darajadan pastdir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"26,3,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Davlat qarzi:<\/strong> Sof davlat qarzining mo\u2018tadil o\u2018sishi kutilmoqda. Qarz profili ijobiy bo\u2018lib qolmoqda: tashqi qarzning 84 foizi imtiyozli shartlarda jalb qilingan.<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"26,4,0\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Monetar siyosat:<\/strong> Monetar siyosat samaradorligi oshdi, biroq kreditlarning dollarlashuvi darajasi yuqoriligicha qolmoqda \u2013 taxminan 40 foiz.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"27\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Manba: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/regulatory\/article\/-\/view\/type\/HTML\/id\/3484202\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P Global Ratings<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&#038;P Global Ratings xalqaro reyting agentligi O\u2018zbekiston Respublikasining xorijiy va milliy valyutadagi uzoq muddatli suveren kredit reytingini &laquo;BB-&raquo; dan &laquo;BB&raquo; darajasiga ko\u2018tardi. Reyting bo\u2018yicha prognoz \u2013 &laquo;Barqaror&raquo;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5283"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5287,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5283\/revisions\/5287"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2018"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}