<\/p>\n
I. Asosiy xulosalar<\/b><\/p>\n
O\u2018zbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy banki \u201c2025-yil I yarim yilligi uchun moliyaviy barqarorlik sharhi\u201dni e\u02bclon qildi. Sharhda moliyaviy sharoitlar, moliyaviy va nomoliyaviy sektorlar tahlil qilingan, xatarlar baholangan, bank tizimi bardoshliligi stress-testdan o\u2018tkazilgan hamda makroprudensial siyosat yo\u2018nalishi keltirilgan.<\/p>\n
Global noaniqliklarga qaramasdan, O\u2018zbekistonda moliyaviy barqarorlik saqlandi. Makromoliyaviy sharoitlar yengillashib, bank tizimi barqaror darajada qoldi.<\/p>\n
II. Global muhit: moliyaviy sharoitlarning yengillashishi\u00a0va noaniqliklar<\/b><\/p>\n
Jahon iqtisodiyoti o\u2018sish sur\u02bcatlarini ma\u02bclum darajada saqlab qolmoqda, inflyatsiya esa pasayishda davom etmoqda.<\/p>\n
Global moliyaviy sharoitlar yengillashdi. Asosiy tashqi xavotirlar savdo siyosati bilan bog\u2018liq. Bunda, savdo tariflarining tiklanishi iqtisodiy o\u2018sishga salbiy ta\u02bcsir ko\u2018rsatishi mumkin.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ko\u2018rsatkichlar va tendensiyalar:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Xalqaro\u00a0bozorlarda foiz stavkalar pasaymoqda;<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Savdo siyosati noaniqliklari saqlanib qolmoqda;<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda milliy valyuta mustahkamlanmoqda;<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jahon fond bozorlarida ijobiy o\u2018zgarishlar kuzatilmoqda.<\/p>\n
III. Milliy iqtisodiyot: kutilmalar barqarorlashmoqda<\/b><\/p>\n
Mamlakatda moliyaviy sharoitlar yengillashmoqda. O\u2018zbekiston iqtisodiyoti ichki talabning ortishi va sof eksport manfiy saldosining qisqarishi hisobiga barqaror o\u2018sishni namoyon etmoqda.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ko\u2018rsatkichlar va tendensiyalar:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 YaIM o\u2018sishi: 7,2%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Inflyatsiya: 8,7%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Savdo balansi manfiy saldosining qisqarishi: 20%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Milliy valyuta kursining yil boshiga nisbatan mustahkamlanishi: 2,1%.<\/p>\n
IV. Bank tizimi: barqarorlik va bardoshlilik<\/b><\/p>\n
Bank tizimida stress darajasi pasaydi, likvidlik holati yaxshilangan va kapital monandliligi minimal talablardan yuqori shakllangan.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ko\u2018rsatkichlar va tendensiyalar:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jami regulyativ kapitalning monandlilik koeffitsiyenti: 17,4%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 I darajali asosiy kapital monandlilik koeffitsiyenti: 14,6%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Muammoli kreditlarning jami kreditlar tarkibidagi ulushi: 3,8%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Likvidlikni qoplash koeffitsiyenti (LCR): 195%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Barqaror moliyalashtirish koeffitsiyenti (NSFR): 117%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kapital rentabelligi (ROE): 10,8%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Aktivlar rentabelligi (ROA): 2%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yuqori likvidli aktivlarning jami aktivlarga nisbati: 18%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Tavakkalchilikka tortilgan aktivlar zichligi: 94%.<\/p>\n
V. Uy-xo\u2018jaligi: ijobiy tendensiyalar va ehtiyotkorlik<\/b><\/p>\n
Jismoniy shaxslarga kredit ajratish ko\u2018lami oshishiga qaramasdan, to\u2018lov intizomi saqlanmoqda. Aholi daromadlari oshdi va qarz yuki darajasi pasaydi.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ko\u2018rsatkichlar va tendensiyalar:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Aholi qarz yuki pasayishi: 36% dan 33% ga,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bank kreditlari mavjud jismoniy shaxslar sonining o\u2018sishi: yillik 15%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mikroqarzlar bo\u2018yicha muammoli kreditlarning ulushi: 4,4%.<\/p>\n
VI. Korporativ sektor: ijobiy o\u2018zgarishlar<\/b><\/p>\n
Korporativ sektorda xavotirlar biroz pasaydi. Tahlil qilingan yirik korxonalarning likvidlilik va rentabellik ko\u2018rsatkichlari, shuningdek leveraj koeffitsiyenti yaxshilandi.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ko\u2018rsatkichlar va tendensiyalar:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Korporativ kreditlar qoldig\u2018ining YaIMga nisbati: 24%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Xorijiy valyutadagi korporativ kreditlarning ulushi: 63%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Korporativ kreditlar qoldig\u2018ining o\u2018sishi: 14%,<\/p>\n
VII. Ko\u2018chmas mulk bozori: uy-joy narxlaridagi tuzatishlar<\/b><\/p>\n
Uy-joylarning fundamental qiymati va bozor narxi orasidagi tafovut qisqardi. Ko\u2018chmas mulk bozorida taklifning sezilarli ortishi va spekulyativ talabning kamayishi narxlardagi tuzatishlarga ta\u02bcsir ko\u2018rsatuvchi omillardan bo\u2018ldi.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ko\u2018rsatkichlar va tendensiyalar:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bozor va o\u2018rtacha fundamental narxlari orasidagi tafovut: 17%dan 4%gacha qisqardi,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bozor narxining yillik o\u2018sishi: -4%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ijara haqlarining o\u2018sishi: 12%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Oldi-sotdi shartnomalar sonining o\u2018sishi: 11%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Aholiga ajratilgan ipoteka kreditlari hajmining o\u2018sishi: 18%.<\/p>\n
VIII. Makro stress-test natijalari<\/b><\/p>\n
To\u2018lov qobiliyati makro stress-test natijalariga ko\u2018ra, asosiy ssenariyda bank tizimi bo\u2018yicha kapital monandlilik koeffitsiyentlari o\u2018sishi, xatarli ssenariyda esa minimal talablardan pasayishi mumkin. Likvidlilik makro stress-testi natijalari esa, bank tizimida likvidlilik holati barqarorligini namoyon etdi.<\/p>\n
Asosiy ssenariyda:<\/b><\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jami regulyativ kapital monandlilik koeffitsiyenti: 19,3%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Leveraj koeffitsiyenti: 13,2%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Milliy valyutadagi jami aktivlarga nisbatan sof pul kirimi: 20%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Xorijiy valyutadagi jami aktivlarga nisbatan sof pul kirimi: 21%.<\/p>\n
Xatarli ssenariyda:<\/b><\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jami regulyativ kapital monandlilik koeffitsiyenti: 8,4%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Leveraj koeffitsiyenti: 5,3%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Milliy valyutadagi jami aktivlarga nisbatan sof pul kirimi: 9%,<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Xorijiy valyutadagi jami aktivlarga nisbatan sof pul kirimi: 14%.<\/p>\n
IX. Makroprudensial siyosat: kapital vositalari va barqarorlik<\/b><\/p>\n
Mamlakat bank tizimi barqarorligini ta\u02bcminlashga qaratilgan likvidlilik va qarzdorlarga yo\u2018naltirilgan makroprudensial siyosat vositalari doimiy takomillashtirib kelinmoqda.<\/p>\n
Yuzaga kelishi mumkin bo\u2018lgan davriy tizimli xatarlarning salbiy ta\u02bcsirini kamaytirish va banklarning to\u2018lov qobiliyatini yaxshilashga xizmat qiluvchi makroprudensial kapital vositalarning ahamiyati oshib bormoqda. Shu munosabat bilan, banklar kapitalining monandliligiga qo\u2018yiladigan talablar takomillashtirilib, kapital buferlari amaliyotga joriy qilinmoqda.<\/p>\n
X. Xulosa: moliyaviy barqarorlik va moslashuvchanlik muvozanati<\/b><\/p>\n
Tahlillar shuni ko\u2018rsatadiki, O\u2018zbekiston moliya tizimida barqarorlik kuzatilmoqda va yangi chaqiriqlarga tez moslasha oladi.<\/p>\n
Moliyaviy barqarorlikning asosiy ustunlari:<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Samarali makroprudensial siyosat;<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bozor ishtirokchilarining mas\u02bculiyatli xulq-atvori;<\/p>\n
\u25cf\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ochiq kommunikatsiyalar.<\/p>\n
\u00a02025 yil ikkinchi yarim yilligi mamlakat moliya tizimi uchun barqaror o\u2018sish, xavflarning nazorat ostida bo\u2018lishi va aholi hamda investorlar ishonchi mustahkamlanishi bilan boshlanmoqda.<\/p>\n
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