{"id":6270,"date":"2026-05-26T12:04:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T07:04:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/?p=6270"},"modified":"2026-05-26T12:04:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T07:04:40","slug":"uzbekistan-s-monetary-policy-in-q1-2026-sustained-growth-amid-global-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/press\/uzbekistan-s-monetary-policy-in-q1-2026-sustained-growth-amid-global-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u02bbzbekistonning Pul-Kredit Siyosati 2026-yil I Choragi: Global Noaniqliklar Sharoitida Barqaror O&#8217;sish"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><em>O\u02bbzbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy bankining 2026-yil I chorak uchun rasmiy \u00abPul-kredit siyosati sharhi\u00bb asosida tayyorlangan tahliliy maqola<\/em><\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Kirish<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">O\u02bbzbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy banki 2026-yilning I choragi \u2014 yanvar-mart davri \u2014 uchun navbatdagi choraklik \u00abPul-kredit siyosati sharhi\u00bbni e\u02bclon qildi. Hujjat dolzarb makroiqtisodiy ma\u02bclumotlar, yangilangan prognozlar va pul-kredit muhitining keng qamrovli tahlilini o\u02bbz ichiga oladi. Taqdim etilgan ma\u02bclumotlar shuni tasdiqlaydikim, O\u02bbzbekiston iqtisodiyoti yuqori o\u02bbsish sur\u02bcatlarini saqlab qolgan holda ketma-ket disinflatsiya jarayonini davom ettirayotgani, shu bilan birga investitsion jozibadorligi va ichki talab barqarorligi yanada mustahkamlanayotganini ko\u02bbrsatadi.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Inflyatsiya: Pasayish Davom Etmoqda, Maqsad Ko&#8217;rishda<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">2026-yil mart oyida umumiy inflyatsiya yillik hisobda <strong>7,1%<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, 2025-yil dekabrga nisbatan <strong>0,2 foiz bandga<\/strong> pasaydi. Bazaviy inflyatsiya martda <strong>5,7%<\/strong> gacha sekinlashdi \u2014 yil boshidan biroz pastroq daraja.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Disinflatsiyaning asosiy omili o\u02bbtgan yildagi tovarlar va xizmatlar bo\u02bbyicha yuqori baza ta\u02bcsirlarining chiqib ketishi bo\u02bbldi. Komponent tahlilida:<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Xizmatlar inflyatsiyasi<\/strong> eng yuqori darajada qolmoqda: yanvarda <strong>13,9%<\/strong> dan martda <strong>12,7%<\/strong> gacha pasaydi, ya\u02bcni chorak davomida <strong>1,2 foiz bandga<\/strong> sekinlashdi. Biroq ushbu guruh inflyatsiyasi umumiy inflyatsiyadan sezilarli yuqori saqlanib, talab tomonidan bosim davom etayotganini ko\u02bbrsatmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Oziq-ovqat mahsulotlari inflyatsiyasi<\/strong> yanvar-fevral oylarida tuxum, un, guruch va shakar mahsulotlarining past baza ta\u02bcsiri hisobiga <strong>5,9%<\/strong> gacha tezlashdi, martda esa go\u02bbsht mahsulotlarining yuqori baza ta\u02bcsiri chiqib ketishi natijasida sekinlashdi. Shu bilan birga, meva va sabzavotlar guruhi chorak oxirida <strong>2,8 foiz bandga<\/strong> tezlashdi: kartoshka narxi oylik hisobda <strong>9,8%<\/strong>, olma narxi esa <strong>7,4%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. Bu holat Yaqin Sharqdagi geosiyosiy keskinliklar fonida import narxlarining oshishi bilan izohlanadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Nooziq-ovqat mahsulotlari inflyatsiyasi<\/strong> martda <strong>5,3%<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, dekabrga nisbatan <strong>0,2 foiz bandga<\/strong> oshdi. Propan narxlarining yil boshidan yillik hisobda <strong>20 foiz bandga<\/strong> va sement narxlarining <strong>5 foiz bandga<\/strong> tezlashishi ushbu guruhga asosiy oshiruvchi ta\u02bcsir ko\u02bbrsatdi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Inflyatsiyaning muqobil o\u02bblchov ko\u02bbrsatkichlari \u2014 qisqartirilgan INI va INI medianasi \u2014 martda mos ravishda <strong>4,1%<\/strong> va <strong>3,4%<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi. Yillik inflyatsiyasi sekinlashgan tovar va xizmatlar ulushi chorak oxirida qisqara boshladi, bu esa disinflatsiya jarayonining keng qamrovli xususiyatidan chiqib ketayotganiga va inflyatsion bosimlar saqlani\u0431 qolayotganiga ishora beradi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bankning <strong>2026 yil yakuniga inflyatsiya prognozi 6,5%<\/strong> darajasida o\u02bbzgarishsiz saqlanmoqda. Asosiy ssenariyda inflyatsiya <strong>2027 yilda 5% maqsadli darajaga<\/strong> yetishi, <strong>2028 yildan<\/strong> boshlab esa ushbu darajada barqarorlashishi prognoz qilinmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Ikki muqobil ssenariy modellashtirilib tahlil qilingan. <strong>Xatarli ssenariyda<\/strong> \u2014 neft narxi 2026 yilda o\u02bbrtacha <strong>$110<\/strong>, 2027 yilda esa <strong>$125<\/strong> dollar (asosiy ssenariydan <strong>34,1%<\/strong> yuqori) atrofida shakllanishi va global oziq-ovqat narxlarining <strong>11,8%<\/strong> ga qo\u02bbshimcha oshishi sharoitida \u2014 ichki inflyatsiya 2026 yil oxirida <strong>7,2%<\/strong>, 2027 yil oxirida <strong>6,6%<\/strong>, 2028 yil oxirida esa <strong>5,1%<\/strong> atrofida shakllanishi mumkin. <strong>Optimistik ssenariyda<\/strong> \u2014 TXI oqimlari, eksport tushumlari va pul o\u02bbtkazmalari kutilganidan yuqori shakllanib, milliy valyuta kursini qo\u02bbllab-quvvatlashi sharoitida \u2014 inflyatsiya 2026 yil oxirida <strong>6,2%<\/strong>, 2027 yil oxirida esa <strong>4,9%<\/strong> atrofida bo\u02bblishi mumkin.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Inflyatsion Kutilmalar: Bosqichma-Bosqich Barqarorlashish<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Aholi<\/strong>ning 2026-yil mart oyidagi 12 oylik inflyatsion kutilmalari <strong>11,0%<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, yanvar-fevraliga nisbatan (11,2%) biroz pasaydi. <strong>Tadbirkorlarning<\/strong> kutilmalari <strong>10,7%<\/strong> (yanvar-fevral: 10,8%) darajasida shakllandi. Kutilmalar va amaldagi inflyatsiya o\u02bbrtasidagi tafovut taxminan <strong>4 foiz band<\/strong> atrofida saqlanib qolmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Moliya sohasi ekspertlari<\/strong>ning 12 oylik inflyatsion kutilmalari martda <strong>7,4%<\/strong> gacha pasaydi (fevralda: 7,7%). <strong>O\u02bbrta muddatli kutilmalar<\/strong> (3 yildan keyin) <strong>5,6%<\/strong> darajasida barqaror saqlandi \u2014 bu Markaziy bankning 5% inflyatsion targeti ishonchliligining o\u02bbsib borayotganini ko\u02bbrsatadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Tadbirkorlarning<\/strong> o\u02bbz tovar va xizmatlari narxlarini oshirish bo&#8217;yicha rejalari 2025-yil I choragi boshidagi o\u02bbrtacha <strong>11%<\/strong> dan 2026-yil mart oyiga kelib <strong>9%<\/strong> gacha pasaydi. Bu narxlash bosimi nisbatan susayayotganini bildiradi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Aholi va tadbirkorlik subyektlarining inflyatsion kutilmalari bo\u02bbyicha <strong>muvozanat indekslari<\/strong> 2025-yilning ikkinchi yarmidan boshlab barqaror pasayish tendensiyasida bo\u02bblib, bu o\u02bbrta muddatli inflyatsion istiqbol bo\u02bbyicha ijobiy signal bermoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Iqtisodiy O&#8217;sish: I Chorak Prognozdan Yuqori<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">2026-yilning I choragida real YIM o\u02bbsishi <strong>8,7%<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, Markaziy bankning avvalgi prognozidan sezilarli yuqori shakllandi. Bu ishlab chiqarish tafovuti ijobiy shakllanishda davom etayotganini va talab tomondan inflyatsion bosimlar saqlanayotganini ko\u02bbrsatadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">O\u02bbsishga hissa qo\u02bbshgan asosiy omillar:<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Xizmatlar sohasi:<\/strong> Moliyaviy xizmatlar <strong>22,4%<\/strong>, savdo xizmatlari <strong>19,4%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. Transport xizmatlarida ham yuqori dinamika kuzatildi \u2014 havo va temiryo\u02bbl yuk aylanmasi faollashuvi hisobiga.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Sanoat:<\/strong> Sohada kuzatilgan o\u02bbsish asosan ishlab chiqarish sanoati hisobiga shakllandi: kiyim-kechak ishlab chiqarish <strong>+15,3%<\/strong>, oziq-ovqat mahsulotlari ishlab chiqarish <strong>+8,7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Qurilish:<\/strong> I chorakda sektor <strong>15,5%<\/strong> o\u02bbsdi va bu qurilishga yo\u02bbnaltirilgan yuqori investitsiyalar bilan izohlanadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Aholining real umumiy daromadlari<\/strong> I chorakda <strong>7,8%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. Yollanma ishchilar daromadlari <strong>20,9%<\/strong>, mustaqil bandlikdan olingan daromadlar esa <strong>17,8%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsib, jami daromadlarning <strong>60,7%<\/strong> ini tashkil etdi. Nominal ish haqi yillik hisobda <strong>17,4%<\/strong> (real hisobda: <strong>+9,5%<\/strong>) ga oshdi. Bo\u02bbsh ish o\u02bbrinlari soni yillik hisobda <strong>9,8%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi; qurilishda (<strong>+48,4%<\/strong>) va umumiy ovqatlanish sohasida (<strong>+41,7%<\/strong>) alohida faollik namoyon bo\u02bbldi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Ushbu natijalar asosida Markaziy bank <strong>2026 yilgi YIM o\u02bbsishi prognozini 7\u20137,5%<\/strong> gacha oshirdi (oldingi prognoz: 6,5\u20137%). <strong>2027\u20132028 yillar<\/strong> uchun o&#8217;rta muddatli prognoz <strong>yiliga 6\u20137%<\/strong> darajasida saqlanmoqda. 2026 yil uchun xususiy iste\u02bcmol prognozi <strong>6,5\u20137,5%<\/strong>, davlat iste\u02bcmoli esa <strong>2\u20133%<\/strong> darajasida shakllanishi kutilmoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Investitsiyalar va TXI: Rekord Darajadagi Oqimlar<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">I chorakda asosiy kapitalga o\u02bbzlashtirilgan investitsiyalar yillik hisobda real hisobda <strong>29,6%<\/strong> ga oshdi. Investitsiyalarning asosiy qismi ishlab chiqarish (<strong>+28,5%<\/strong>) va qurilish sohasiga (<strong>+10,8%<\/strong>) yo\u02bbnaltirildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Alohida e\u02bctibor qaratish joiz: 2026-yilning I choragida sof <strong>to\u02bbg\u02bbridan-to\u02bbg\u02bbri xorijiy investitsiyalar oqimi $5,9 mlrd<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, yillik hisobda <strong>74,2%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. TXIning YIMdagi ulushi <strong>16,1%<\/strong> ga yetdi \u2014 bu mamlakat zamonaviy tarixidagi eng yuqori ko\u02bbrsatkichlardan biri.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">2026 yil uchun investitsiyalarni o\u02bbzlashtirish prognozi <strong>12\u201316% real o\u02bbsish<\/strong> darajasiga sezilarli oshirildi (avvalgi prognoz: 8\u201311%). Yirik sanoat, energetika va transport-logistika loyihalarining amalga oshirilishi ushbu dinamikaning asosiy drayverlaridan biri bo\u02bblib qolmoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Tashqi Savdo va Pul O&#8217;tkazmalari<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">2026-yilning I choragida oltin eksportining amalga oshirilmaganligi sababli jami eksport <strong>29,3%<\/strong> ga pasaydi. Biroq <strong>oltinsiz eksport 25,1%<\/strong> ga, oltin va xizmatlarsiz eksport esa <strong>24,0%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. Kimyo mahsulotlari eksporti ayniqsa faol bo&#8217;lib, <strong>+44,6%<\/strong> ni qayd etdi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Jami import 30,9%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsib, <strong>$12,2 mlrd<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi. Asosiy o\u02bbsish: oziq-ovqat mahsulotlari (<strong>+48,3%<\/strong>), energetika va neft mahsulotlari (<strong>+64,4%<\/strong>), mashina va uskunalar (<strong>+30,7%<\/strong>). Bu dinamika yuqori investitsiya va iste\u02bcmol faolligini aks ettiradi, shu bilan birga global tovar narxlarining import kanali orqali ichki inflyatsiyaga o\u02bbtish xatarlarini ham saqlab qolmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Transchegaraviy pul o\u02bbtkazmalari<\/strong> I chorakda <strong>$3,8 mlrd<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, yillik hisobda <strong>13%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. 2026 yil uchun <strong>import prognozi 15\u201320%<\/strong> ga, oltinsiz eksport prognozi esa <strong>12\u201316%<\/strong> darajasida saqlanib qoldi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Real samarali almashuv kursi (RSAK)<\/strong> martda biroz mustahkamlangan bo\u02bblsa-da, yil boshiga nisbatan <strong>1,6%<\/strong> ga qadrsizlandi. Bu asosan yilning dastlabki ikki oyida milliy valyuta kursida kuzatilgan qadrsizlanish va asosiy savdo hamkor mamlakatlar valyutalarining mustahkamlanishi bilan izohlanadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bank tomonidan o\u02bbtkazilgan empirik tadqiqot shuni tasdiqladi: nominal almashuv kursining <strong>1%<\/strong> ga qadrsizlanishi ichki inflyatsiyani taxminan <strong>0,2 foiz bandga<\/strong> oshiradi va ushbu ta\u02bcsir taxminan 10 oy davomida saqlanadi. Raqobatbardoshlik ustunligi esa bir chorak ichida yuqori inflyatsiya hisobiga neytrallanadi. Bu natija eksport diversifikatsiyasi va unumdorlik asosida raqobatbardoshlikni oshirishning strategik ahamiyatini yanada tasdiqlamoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Byudjet Holati<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">2026-yilning I choragi davlat byudjeti <strong>7,7 trln so\u02bbm profitsit<\/strong> bilan ijro etildi. Daromadlar <strong>35%<\/strong>, xarajatlar esa <strong>22%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. Jahon bozorida oltin narxlarining yuqori saqlanishi byudjet daromadlarini qo\u02bbllab-quvvatlagan asosiy omillardan biri bo\u02bbldi. Yil yakuni bo\u02bbyicha fiskal taqchillik <strong>YIMga nisbatan 3%<\/strong> \u2014 tasdiqlangan parametrlar doirasida \u2014 shakllanishi kutilmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bank qayd etganidek, yuqori iqtisodiy faollik sharoitida qo\u02bbshimcha daromadlar hisobiga byudjet xarajatlarining kengayishi protsiklik ta\u02bcsirni kuchaytirishi va yalpi talab orqali inflyatsion bosimlarni yuzaga keltirishi mumkin.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Pul-Kredit Siyosati: Ongli Jilovlash Strategiyasi<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bank boshqaruvi <strong>2026-yil 18-martdagi yig\u02bbilishida asosiy stavkani o\u02bbzgarishsiz qoldirdi.<\/strong> Bu qaror talab tomonidan inflyatsion bosimlarning saqlanishi va tashqi xatarlarning kuchayishi bilan izohlanadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Asosiy stavkaning real qiymati<\/strong> I chorak yakunida <strong>6,4%<\/strong> ga yetdi \u2014 yil boshiga nisbatan <strong>0,2 foiz bandga<\/strong> oshdi. <strong>UZONIA stavkasi<\/strong> chorak davomida o\u02bbrtacha <strong>13,7%<\/strong> ni tashkil etib, asosiy stavkaga yaqin darajada shakllandi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Bank tizimi <strong>tizimli likvidlik profitsiti<\/strong> sharoitida ishladi: I chorakda kunlik o\u02bbrtacha profitsit <strong>55,4 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi (martda \u2014 <strong>59,2 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong>), bu 2025-yilning IV choragi (31,8 trln so\u02bbm) bilan solishtirganda sezilarli yuqori. Ushbu ortiqcha likvidlikni sterilizatsiya qilish maqsadida Markaziy bank tomonidan <strong>7 kunlik obligatsiyalar<\/strong> faol qo\u02bbllanildi: ularning kunlik o\u02bbrtacha qoldig\u02bbi <strong>48,7 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi (IV chorakda: 25,5 trln so\u02bbm). Overnayt depozitlar bo\u02bbyicha ushbu ko\u02bbrsatkich <strong>5,1 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong> (IV chorakda: 4,2 trln so\u02bbm) ga teng bo\u02bbldi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">I chorakda banklararo pul bozorida jami <strong>163 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong>lik operatsiyalar amalga oshirildi \u2014 bu avvalgi chorakka (184 trln so\u02bbm) nisbatan <strong>11%<\/strong> ga past. Operatsiyalarning <strong>89%<\/strong> i overnayt bitimlariga to\u02bbg\u02bbri keldi (+3 foiz band).<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bank pul-kredit siyosatini yuritishda <strong>ma\u02bclumotlarga asoslangan, har bir yig\u02bbilish uchun alohida baho beriladigan<\/strong> yondashuvni qo\u02bbllamoqda. MPRda qayd etilganidek, bu moslashuvchanlik noaniqlik belgisi emas \u2014 balki to\u02bblqin-to\u02bblqin namoyon bo\u02bblayotgan taklif shoklari davrida narxlar barqarorligini ta\u02bcminlashning ratsional strategiyasidir. Hujjatda 2021\u20132022 yillardagi yirik markaziy banklar prognoz xatoliklari ham keltirilgan: AQSh Federal Zaxira Tizimi uchun xatolik <strong>6,4 f.b.<\/strong>, Yevropa Markaziy banki uchun <strong>7,4 f.b.<\/strong>, Angliya banki uchun <strong>3,85 f.b.<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Pul-Kredit Sharoitlari: Kredit va Depozit Bozori<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Milliy valyutadagi depozitlar<\/strong> yillik hisobda <strong>46,4%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsib, <strong>253 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong> ga yetdi. Aholining muddatli va jamg\u02bbarma depozitlari <strong>43%<\/strong>, yuridik shaxslarniki esa <strong>69%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsdi. Martda <strong>aholining muddatli depozitlari bo\u02bbyicha real foiz stavkasi 8,5%<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi (+0,3 f.b.); <strong>yuridik shaxslar uchun \u2014 4,4%<\/strong> (\u22120,4 f.b.).<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Kreditlar qoldig\u02bbi<\/strong> yillik hisobda <strong>15%<\/strong> ga o\u02bbsib, <strong>679 trln so\u02bbm<\/strong> ga yetdi \u2014 bu avvalgi chorakka nisbatan 0,3 f.b. sekinlashuv. <strong>Aholi kreditlari +22,3%<\/strong>, <strong>korporativ kreditlar +11,7%<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi. Martda <strong>aholi kreditlari bo\u02bbyicha real foiz stavkasi 9,8%<\/strong> (+0,4 f.b.), <strong>yuridik shaxslar uchun 10,8%<\/strong> (+0,1 f.b.) ni tashkil etdi. 2026 yil uchun kredit o\u02bbsishi prognozi <strong>14\u201316%<\/strong> darajasida saqlanmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bank pul-kredit sharoitlari matritsasini qo\u02bbllaydi \u2014 bu kompozit tahliliy vosita Kanada banki tajribasiga, shuningdek Chexiya, Janubiy Afrika va boshqa markaziy banklar amaliyotiga asoslanib ishlab chiqilgan. Matritsaga <strong>7 ta ko\u02bbrsatkich<\/strong> kiritilgan: real asosiy stavka, real UZONIA stavkasi, likvidlik pozitsiyasi, DQQ o\u02bbrtacha daromadliligi, milliy valyutadagi depozitlar o\u02bbsishi, milliy valyutadagi kreditlar o\u02bbsishi va inflyatsion kutilmalarning amaldagi inflyatsiyadan tafovuti. I chorak yakunlari bo&#8217;yicha matritsaning tahlili pul-kredit sharoitlari <strong>yetarlicha qat\u02bciy<\/strong> saqlanganligini tasdiqladi.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Sanoat Transformatsiyasi: Strukturaviy Chuqurlashuv<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">MPRda 2019 yildan beri davom etayotgan sanoat evolyutsiyasi maxsus tahlil qilingan. <strong>Sanoatning YIMdagi ulushi 2019 yildagi 23% dan 2026 yilga kelib 28% ga<\/strong> ko&#8217;tarildi. <strong>Qayta ishlash sanoati jami sanoat mahsulotining taxminan 86%<\/strong> ini tashkil etmoqda. Yetakchi segmentlar: metallurgiya, oziq-ovqat sanoati va to&#8217;qimachilik, shuningdek yuqori qo\u02bbshilgan qiymatli yo\u02bbnalishlar \u2014 elektr uskunalari, transport vositalari va tayyor metall buyumlar ishlab chiqarish faollik sur\u02bcatlarini oshirmoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>2021\u20132026 yillarda<\/strong> umumiy milliy investitsiyalarning o\u02bbrtacha <strong>51%<\/strong> i sanoat hissasiga to\u02bbg\u02bbri keldi. Dastlabki yillarda investitsiyalar asosan qayta ishlash va tog\u02bb-kon sanoatiga, so\u02bbnggi yillarda esa energetika infratuzilmasiga yo&#8217;naltirilgan loyihalar ulushi sezilarli oshdi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Xarajatlar-ishlab chiqarish jadvali tahlili iqtisodiyotning agrar modeldan sanoat va xizmatlar sohasiga tayanuvchi modelga bosqichma-bosqich o\u02bbtishini tasdiqlaydi. Transport, logistika, axborot-kommunikatsiya va moliyaviy xizmatlar o&#8217;rtasidagi kooperatsiya va qo\u02bbshilgan qiymat zanjirlari chuqurlashib bormoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Nodir Yer Elementlari: Strategik Resurs Salohiyati<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">MPRda nodir yer elementlari (NRE) mavzusiga alohida ilova bagi\u02bbshlanib, ushbu elementlarning global \u00abyashil transformatsiya\u00bb jarayonidagi strategik ahamiyati tahlil qilingan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>Nodir yer oksidlari bozori 2025 yilda taxminan $6 mlrd<\/strong>, <strong>doimiy magnitlar bozori esa ~$25 mlrd<\/strong> ni tashkil etdi. Bu bozorlar trilyonlab dollar bilan baholangan yuqori texnologiyali global ishlab chiqarish zanjirlarida muhim rol o\u02bbynamoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Jahon bo\u02bbyicha NRE ishlab chiqarish 2025 yilda taxminan <strong>390 ming tonna<\/strong> atrofida shakllandi. Geografik jihatdan ishlab chiqarish yuqori darajada konsentratsiyalashgan: <strong>Xitoy jahon hajmining taxminan 70%<\/strong> ini ta&#8217;minlaydi. Bu global ta\u02bcminot zanjirlari barqarorligiga nisbatan tizimli xatarlarni yuzaga keltirishi mumkin. Tasdiqlangan jahon zaxiralari <strong>85 mln tonnadan<\/strong> ortiq bo&#8217;lib, Xitoy (44 mln tonna) va Braziliya (21 mln tonna) eng katta ulushga ega.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>O\u02bbzbekistonda 2 500 dan ortiq mineral resurs konlari mavjud<\/strong> bo&#8217;lib, ularning umumiy qiymati <strong>$3 trln dan ziyod<\/strong> baholangan. Mamlakatda litiy, grafit, magniy, volfram, molibden, alyuminiy, tantal va niobiy zaxiralari mavjud. Kelgusi uch yil ichida <strong>28 turdagi noyob resurslarni qamrab olgan, jami qiymati $2,6 mlrd ga teng 76 ta loyiha<\/strong> amalga oshirilishi rejalashtirilgan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Hozirda O\u02bbzbekistonda NRE bozori asosan import hisobiga shakllangan: 2025 yilda NRE va ularning oksidlari importi taxminan <strong>$190 ming<\/strong>, doimiy magnitlar importi esa <strong>$711 ming<\/strong> dollarga yetdi. Mahalliy qazib olish va qayta ishlashni yo\u02bblga qo\u02bbyish importga bog\u02bbliqlikni kamaytirish, eksport hajmlarini oshirish va hududiy ishlab chiqarish klasterlarini shakllantirish imkonini beradi. 2033 yilga kelib NRE oksidlari bozori <strong>$9,5 mlrd<\/strong>, doimiy magnitlar bozori esa <strong>$51 mlrd<\/strong> ga yetishi prognoz qilinmoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Narxlar Monitoringi Platformasi: narxtahlil.uz<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">MPRda Markaziy bank tomonidan ishlab chiqilgan <strong>narxtahlil.uz<\/strong> platformasi maxsus taqdim etildi. Bu vosita oziq-ovqat mahsulotlari narxlarini yuqori chastotada kuzatish, tahlil qilish va qisqa muddatli prognozlash imkonini beradi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Platforma <strong>30 turdagi asosiy iste\u02bcmol mahsulotlari<\/strong> bo\u02bbyicha viloyatlar, tuman va shaharlar kesimida narxlarni interaktiv tarzda taqdim etadi. Ma\u02bclumotlar Milliy statistika qo\u02bbmitasi xodimlari tomonidan haftalik asosda <strong>CAPI (Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing)<\/strong> texnologiyasi yordamida dehqon bozorlarida to\u02bbplanadi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Platforma uchta asosiy bo\u02bblimdan iborat:<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>\u00abNarx tahlili\u00bb<\/strong> \u2014 haftalik dinamika, mintaqaviy tafovutlar va narx o\u02bbzgarishi reytinglari;<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>\u00abPrognoz\u00bb<\/strong> \u2014 <strong>SARIMA<\/strong> (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modeli asosida <strong>3 oylik<\/strong> qisqa muddatli prognozlar. Bu model shartsiz prognoz modeli bo\u02bblib, valyuta kursi yoki logistika shoklari kabi ekzogen omillarni bevosita inobatga olmaydi; shuning uchun ekspert baholari va qo\u02bbshimcha makroiqtisodiy ma\u02bclumotlar bilan to\u02bbldirilishi tavsiya etiladi;<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><strong>\u00abKutilmalar\u00bb<\/strong> \u2014 aholi va tadbirkorlik subyektlarining inflyatsion kutilmalari hamda sezilgan inflyatsiya darajasi bo\u02bbyicha ma\u02bclumotlar, 5% inflyatsion maqsadga erishishga bo&#8217;lgan ishonch darajasi va muvozanat indeksi ko\u02bbrsatkichlari.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Platforma rasmiy oylik INI e\u02bclon qilinishidan oldin inflyatsion bosimlarni oldindan aniqlash, hududiy narx tafovutlarini baholash va pul-kredit siyosati kommunikatsiyasining samaradorligini tahlil qilishda muhim tahliliy qurol sifatida xizmat qiladi. Kelgusida platformaning nooziq-ovqat tovarlar va xizmatlar segmentini qamrab olish rejalashtirilgan.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Tashqi Muhit va Xalqaro Prognozlar<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Tashqi muhit murakkabligicha qolmoqda. XVJ <strong>2026 yilgi global o&#8217;sish prognozini 3,1%<\/strong> gacha pasaytirdi (yanvarda: 3,3%). <strong>Global inflyatsiya prognozi 0,6 f.b. ga oshirib, 4,4%<\/strong> ga ko&#8217;tarildi. Neft narxlari martda fevralga nisbatan <strong>41,6%<\/strong>, o\u02bbg\u02bbitlar narxi <strong>26,2%<\/strong>, FAO oziq-ovqat narxlari indeksi esa <strong>2,7%<\/strong> ga oshdi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">XVJning xatarli global ssenariyda neft narxi barrel uchun taxminan <strong>$100<\/strong> (xatarli) yoki <strong>$110\u2013125<\/strong> dollarga (o\u02bbta xatarli) yetishi, global o\u02bbsish <strong>2,5%<\/strong> yoki <strong>2,1\u20132,2%<\/strong> gacha sekinlashishi, global inflyatsiya esa <strong>5,4%<\/strong> yoki <strong>5,8\u20136,1%<\/strong> gacha tezlashishi prognoz qilingan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Asosiy savdo hamkorlar kesimida: <strong>Xitoy<\/strong> I chorakda <strong>5%<\/strong> o\u02bbsdi \u2014 asosan sanoat va eksport hisobiga. <strong>Rossiya<\/strong> iqtisodiyotida faollik bir oz sekinlashdi, biroq xususiy talab va davlat xarajatlari o\u02bbsishni qo\u02bbllab-quvvatlamoqda; pul-kredit siyosati bosqichma-bosqich yumshatilmoqda. <strong>Qozog\u02bbiston<\/strong> I chorakda <strong>3%<\/strong> o\u02bbsdi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Asosiy savdo hamkor mamlakatlar valyutalarining \u2014 rus rubli, xitoy yuani va qozog\u02bbiston tengesi \u2014 mustahkamlanishi O\u02bbzbekistonning ichki valyuta bozorida xorijiy valyuta taklifini qo\u02bbllab-quvvatlamoqda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Barcha yirik xalqaro moliya tashkilotlari O\u02bbzbekiston iqtisodiyoti bo\u02bbyicha prognozlarini ijobiy tomonga qayta ko&#8217;rib chiqdi:<\/p>\n<div class=\"overflow-x-auto w-full px-2 mb-6\">\n<table class=\"min-w-full border-collapse text-sm leading-[1.7] whitespace-normal\" style=\"width: 63.9198%; height: 115px;\">\n<thead class=\"text-left\">\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<th class=\"text-text-100 border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/60 py-2 pr-4 align-top font-bold\" style=\"width: 31.0019%; height: 23px;\" scope=\"col\">Tashkilot<\/th>\n<th class=\"text-text-100 border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/60 py-2 pr-4 align-top font-bold\" style=\"width: 35.3497%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\" scope=\"col\">2026 yil YIM prognozi<\/th>\n<th class=\"text-text-100 border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/60 py-2 pr-4 align-top font-bold\" style=\"width: 59.3573%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\" scope=\"col\">Qayta ko&#8217;rib chiqish<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 31.0019%; height: 23px;\">XVJ<\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 35.3497%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\"><strong>6,8%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 59.3573%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\">+0,8 f.b.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 31.0019%; height: 23px;\">Jahon banki<\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 35.3497%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\"><strong>6,4%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 59.3573%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\">+0,4 f.b.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 31.0019%; height: 23px;\">Osiyo taraqqiyot banki<\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 35.3497%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\"><strong>6,7%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 59.3573%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\">+0,7 f.b.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 31.0019%; height: 23px;\">YETTB<\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 35.3497%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\">\u2014<\/td>\n<td class=\"border-b-0.5 border-border-300\/30 py-2 pr-4 align-top\" style=\"width: 59.3573%; text-align: center; height: 23px;\">+0,5 f.b.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">XVJning IV modda bo&#8217;yicha missiyasi O\u02bbzbekistondagi inflyatsiyani <strong>2026 yilda 6,8%<\/strong>, <strong>2027 yilda 5%<\/strong> darajasida prognoz qildi \u2014 qat\u02bciy pul-kredit siyosati, energiya tariflari ta\u02bcsirining bosqichma-bosqich susayishi, milliy valyutaning mustahkamlanishi va neft narxlari bosimining keyinchalik pasayishi sababli. OTB 2026 yilgi inflyatsiya prognozini <strong>6,5%<\/strong> darajasida shakllantirdi.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<h4 class=\"text-text-100 mt-2 -mb-1 text-base font-bold\">Xulosa<\/h4>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">2026-yilning I choragi ma\u02bclumotlari O\u02bbzbekistonning bir necha yil davomida olib borilayotgan islohotlar strategiyasining izchilligini tasdiqlaydi. Rekord TXI oqimlari, <strong>8,7%<\/strong> lik keng qamrovli YIM o\u02bbsishi, byudjet profitsiti va moliyaviy vositachilikni chuqurlashtirish \u2014 bularning barchasi ishonchli strukturaviy transformatsiya yo\u02bblida oldinga ketayotgan iqtisodiyotni aks ettiradi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Markaziy bank intizomli disinflatsiya siyosatini yuritmoqda \u2014 ijobiy real foiz stavkalarini saqlash va qat\u02bciy pul-kredit sharoitlarini ta\u02bcminlash orqali \u2014 joriy ma\u02bclumotlarga moslashuvchan munosabat bildirish imkoniyatini saqlab qolgan holda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Xalqaro hamjamiyatning O\u02bbzbekiston iqtisodiyotiga bo\u02bblgan ishonchi nafaqat saqlanib qoldi \u2014 u mustahkamlandi. Bir vaqtning o&#8217;zida barcha yirik ko&#8217;p tomonlama institutlar tomonidan o\u02bbsish prognozlari yuqoriga qayta ko&#8217;rib chiqilishi, makroiqtisodiy boshqaruvning sifati va izchilligini aks ettiruvchi kam uchraydigan hodisadir.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Inflyatsiya 5% maqsadli darajasiga ishonchli trayektoriyada harakat qilayotgani, sanoat bazasining kengayib borishi, strategik mineral resurslarning o\u02bbsib borayotgan salohiyati va investitsiya oqimlarining ortishi O\u02bbzbekistonning yanada diversifikatsiyalashgan, chidamli va xalqaro darajada integratsiyalashgan iqtisodiyot qurilishiga mustahkam poydevor yaratmoqda.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5\" \/>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\"><em>Manba: <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbu.uz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cbu.uz<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u02bbzbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy banki 2026-yilning I choragi \u2014 yanvar-mart davri \u2014 uchun navbatdagi choraklik \u00abPul-kredit siyosati sharhi\u00bbni e\u02bclon qildi. Hujjat dolzarb makroiqtisodiy ma\u02bclumotlar, yangilangan prognozlar va pul-kredit muhitining keng qamrovli tahlilini o\u02bbz ichiga oladi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6274,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6270"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6270\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6275,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6270\/revisions\/6275"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/invexi.org\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}