In its updated report, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has revised Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2024. It is noted that sustainable economic growth is associated with the active development of key sectors and increased investment.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms has released a forecast of Uzbekistan’s GDP for 2024. According to the study, economic growth is expected at 6.5%. The forecast is based on the analysis of extensive data, current economic trends and data on the development of key sectors.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Uzbekistan’s economy is showing stable growth rates. According to the Statistics Agency, in the first nine months of 2024, the country’s economy demonstrated growth of 6.6%.

Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by CEIR, in October this year showed a significant growth of 17.7% compared to the previous month and 33.8% compared to the same period last year. In November, year-on-year growth in the IDA remains impressive at 23.9%.

Data Analysis and Current Economic Trends

According to Google Trends data analysis, there has been a marked increase in activity in the fourth quarter of this year. Queries for categories such as “motor vehicles” increased by 6.1%, “business and industry” increased by 10.0%, and “shopping” increased by 12.8%. These figures indicate a significant increase in consumer interest and activity.

Overall, based on an in-depth analysis of current economic trends, and taking into account the above-mentioned factors, Uzbekistan’s projected GDP growth for 2024 is 6.5%, with a corridor of 6.3-6.7%.

The sustainable growth of the economy is driven by several key factors. First, the dynamic development of industry, which is manifested in an increase in production and modernization of infrastructure.

Secondly, the growth of investment in fixed capital, which contributes to the creation of new jobs and improvement of the business environment. Third, strengthening of the services sector, which demonstrates significant activity and diversity of offerings.

The above factors form a solid basis for stable economic growth at the end of the year and create optimistic expectations, including from international organizations.

In particular, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects GDP growth of 5.6%, the World Bank (WB) – 6.0%, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasts growth of 6.0%. All these estimates are based on active investment activity and continuation of structural reforms.