General Trends

According to the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan In February 2025, the consolidated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month was 100.5%, indicating a slight increase in prices for goods and services. Since the beginning of the year (January-February 2025), this figure has reached 101.3%, while in annual terms (compared to February 2024), it was recorded at 110.1%.

The CPI is a key indicator of inflation in the consumer sector, reflecting changes in the cost of a fixed set of 420 goods and 90 services. To monitor prices, over 10,000 retail outlets are surveyed monthly, and around 170,000 price quotes are recorded.

Dynamics by Product and Service Categories

Food Products

• The short-term CPI for food products in February 2025 was 100.6%.
• In annual terms, food prices increased by 2.9%.
• The biggest contributors to price growth were vegetables, tubers, and legumes (+0.28 percentage points) and meat products (+0.20 percentage points).
• A restraining effect was provided by a decrease in prices for dairy products, eggs, and grains (-0.29 percentage points).

Non-Food Products

• The CPI for this category was 100.3% in February and 107.7% in annual terms.
• The main contributors to price growth were household goods, clothing, and footwear.
• Prices for household items showed moderate growth in the range of 99.5% – 101.0%.

Services

• The CPI for services in February was 100.8%, compared to 101.9% in December 2024.
• In annual terms, service prices increased significantly by 27.1%.
• The highest price increases were observed in transportation (higher air and railway ticket prices), healthcare, and education.

Impact of Specific Factors

Utility Services

• In February, there was an increase in tariffs for hot water supply and heating in the Tashkent region, as well as waste disposal in the Navoi region.
• Overall, tariffs for other key utilities remained at January levels.

Transport

• A significant rise in air ticket prices was recorded (domestic flights up by 60%, international flights up by 90%), as well as railway fares (+7.7%).
• The cost of driver training courses increased by 7.5%.

Fruit and Vegetable Products

• Excluding price fluctuations for fruits and vegetables, the overall CPI without considering fruit and vegetable prices was recorded at 100.3%.
• In annual terms, price changes in the fruit and vegetable category acted as a restraining factor, lowering the overall CPI by 2.1 percentage points.

Conclusion

February 2025 demonstrated moderate price growth across different market segments. The most significant contributors to inflation were:

1. Rising food prices, especially for meat and vegetables.
2. A significant increase in service prices, particularly in transportation and healthcare.
3. Changes in utility tariffs.

At the same time, lower prices for certain food categories and price stability for some non-food items helped smooth out the overall inflation index.

Given these trends, the further development of inflationary processes in Uzbekistan will depend on external economic conditions, domestic economic reforms, and price regulation policies for key goods and services.