The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Uzbekistan for April 2025 reflects moderate inflation driven by food, services, and regional variations, as reported by the National Statistics Committee.

Analytical Article

The National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan released its April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, providing a comprehensive overview of price dynamics across goods, services, and regions. The consolidated CPI for April 2025 stood at 100.7% compared to the previous month, 102.9% relative to December 2024, and 110.1% year-on-year. These figures indicate a stable yet gradually increasing price environment, with an average monthly CPI rise of 0.7% from January to April 2025, slightly lower than the 0.8% recorded in 2023 but higher than the 0.6% in 2024. This trend underscores Uzbekistan’s ongoing economic adjustments amidst global and regional influences.

Regional Variations in CPI

The CPI data highlights notable regional differences, with Bukhara, Namangan, and Fergana regions recording monthly increases above the national average of 100.7%. For instance, Namangan and Fergana both reported a monthly CPI of 100.9%, while Bukhara reached 100.8%. On an annual basis, Kashkadarya, Namangan, Fergana, and Tashkent city exceeded the national average of 110.1%, with Tashkent city posting the highest annual CPI at 111.0%. These variations reflect localized economic activities, infrastructure developments, and consumption patterns. For example, Tashkent city, as the economic hub, likely experiences higher demand-driven price pressures, while agricultural regions like Fergana benefit from robust local production but face seasonal price fluctuations.

Sectoral Price Dynamics

The CPI report categorizes price changes into goods and services, with services outpacing goods in April 2025. The CPI for services reached 101.0% for the month, compared to 100.6% for goods, driven by sectors such as healthcare (101.3%), transport (101.0%), and information and communication (101.4%). Within goods, food products saw a monthly increase of 0.8%, with oil and fat products (up 2.5%) and meat products (up 1.5%) leading the rise. Seasonal factors influenced fruit and vegetable prices, with fruits and nuts rising by 1.7% and vegetables declining by 0.5%. Non-food products, however, remained relatively stable at 100.4%, indicating resilience in this segment against sharp price swings.

Year-to-date data (January–April 2025) shows food products increasing by 103.6% compared to December 2024, outpacing non-food products (101.2%) and services (103.6%). The annual CPI for food products dropped to 104.0% in April 2025 from 107.0% in April 2024, reflecting a slowdown in food inflation. Conversely, services saw a significant annual CPI of 126.1%, largely due to tariff liberalization in public utilities since May 2024. This liberalization, particularly in housing services, water, electricity, and gas, resulted in an annual CPI of 133.1% for this category, highlighting its substantial impact on overall inflation.

Key Drivers of Inflation

The April 2025 CPI was predominantly influenced by food and non-alcoholic beverages, contributing over 45% to the monthly CPI growth. Specific increases in oil and fat products, such as vegetable oils (up 3.2%), and meat products, including beef and lamb (up 1.5–1.8%), were significant drivers. The report also notes the role of housing and utility services, with a monthly CPI of 102.2% for water supply and related services, spurred by tariff adjustments in regions like Samarkand, Fergana, and Navoi. Transport services, particularly air travel (105.1%), and mobile communication tariffs (up 2.5%), further contributed to the CPI rise, collectively accounting for 40% of the monthly impact.

Methodological Robustness

The CPI’s reliability stems from the National Statistics Committee’s rigorous methodology, monitoring 510 items (170 food products, 250 non-food products, and 90 services) across urban and rural markets. Price data collection, conducted from the 10th to the 20th of each month, captures over 170,000 price quotations, ensuring representativeness. The use of household survey data to weight the consumer basket, aligned with the COICOP RU 2018 classification, enhances the CPI’s relevance. This methodology underscores the CPI as a pure price change indicator, distinct from cost-of-living measures, and supports its utility for policymakers and analysts.

Implications and Outlook

The April 2025 CPI data suggests a balanced inflationary environment in Uzbekistan, with food and services as primary drivers. The moderation in food inflation compared to 2024, coupled with stable non-food prices, indicates effective supply chain management and market competition. However, the sharp rise in service prices, particularly utilities, signals the need for targeted measures to mitigate the impact on households, especially in regions with above-average CPI growth. The regional disparities also highlight opportunities for localized economic policies to address specific price pressures.

Looking ahead, Uzbekistan’s economic policymakers may prioritize stabilizing utility tariffs and enhancing agricultural productivity to curb seasonal food price volatility. The robust CPI methodology and transparent reporting by the National Statistics Committee provide a solid foundation for informed decision-making, fostering economic resilience in a dynamic global context.

Source: National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Consumer Price Index Report, April 2025.