WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 2026:

Global Overview and Economic Prospects for Uzbekistan in UN Assessments

Analytical Review Based on the UN Report

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026

Introduction

In January 2026, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), in partnership with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five UN regional commissions, published its annual flagship report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 (WESP 2026). This review presents a comprehensive analysis of the current state and development prospects of the global economy amid persistent uncertainty, geopolitical transformations, and structural challenges.

According to UN experts, the global economy has shown resilience amid turbulence, yet growth remains subdued and well below pre-pandemic levels. As noted in the foreword by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, while inflation has eased, prices remain high and continue to rise—eroding purchasing power and straining household budgets.

I. Global Economic Context

1.1. Macroeconomic Outlook

According to UN assessments, the global economy has demonstrated resilience, yet growth remains subdued amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainties, shifting trade policies, and persistent fiscal challenges. Geopolitical tensions and financial risks add further pressure on the global economy.

Key UN Forecast Indicators:

According to UN forecasts, global GDP growth, estimated at 2.8% for 2025, is projected to decline slightly to 2.7% in 2026 before edging up to 2.9% in 2027. These figures remain well below the pre-pandemic (2010-2019) average of 3.2%.

1.2. Inflation Dynamics

Global disinflation continued in 2025 and, according to UN experts, this trend is expected to persist in the near term. Average global headline inflation declined from 4.0% in 2024 to an estimated 3.4% in 2025 and is projected to slow further to 3.1% in 2026.

As noted in the report, the decline in inflation has been driven by lower international energy and food prices, easing currency depreciation pressures, and slower nominal wage growth. According to UN data, inflation returned to long-term (2010-2019) averages in approximately 40% of countries worldwide in 2025.

1.3. International Trade

According to the report, global trade remained resilient in 2025, expanding by an estimated 3.8% despite heightened trade policy uncertainty and higher United States tariffs. Growth was supported by robust merchandise trade, boosted by front-loading of shipments ahead of new tariffs, and by the continued strong expansion of trade in services.

UN experts project global trade growth to slow to 2.2% in 2026 as front-loading effects fade and tariffs become more entrenched. Trade in services is estimated to have grown by 5.3% in real terms in 2025.

1.4. Labour Markets

According to International Labour Organization estimates cited in the report, the global unemployment rate remained at a historically low 5% in 2025 and is projected to edge slightly lower to 4.9% in 2026. However, structural challenges persist: gender gaps in labour force participation remain wide, and youth unemployment (ages 15-24) remains more than twice the overall unemployment rate.

According to UN data, approximately 257 million young people worldwide (one in five) are not in employment, education, or training (NEET).

1.5. Remittances and External Financing

As noted in the UN report, workers’ remittances have become one of the largest and most robust sources of external financing for developing countries. In 2023 and 2024, remittance inflows to low- and middle-income countries totaled $636 billion and $699.9 billion respectively, exceeding the combined value of net foreign direct investment inflows and official development assistance.

However, UN experts express concern about the projected decline in official development assistance (ODA) in 2026-2027. According to OECD estimates, ODA from Development Assistance Committee member countries declined by 9-17% in 2025 following a 9% drop in 2024.

1.6. Artificial Intelligence and Technological Transformation

According to UN expert assessments, artificial intelligence is emerging as a potential driver of productivity growth. According to WTO projections cited in the report, AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% between 2025 and 2040 through higher volumes of digitally deliverable services, lower operational costs in merchandise trade, and greater efficiency in service delivery.

However, the report emphasizes that such activity remains concentrated in a few major economies with substantial technological and financial capacity, which may exacerbate existing disparities between countries.

II. Economic Prospects for Uzbekistan in UN Assessments

In the WESP 2026 report, Uzbekistan is mentioned in several contexts, reflecting international recognition of its role in the regional and global economy. The country is considered part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, is included in the group of landlocked developing countries (LLDCs), and belongs to the category of net fuel importers among CIS countries.

2.1. Economic Growth Dynamics

According to the UN report’s statistical data, Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrates one of the highest growth rates in the CIS region and among developing countries:

Notably, according to UN projections, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 (7.3%) is more than 2.7 times the global average (2.7%). Uzbekistan’s average annual GDP growth rate for the period 2003-2017 was 7.6%, demonstrating the country’s sustained economic development trajectory.

As stated in the report, Uzbekistan, along with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, continued to benefit from rising gold prices, large-scale infrastructure investment, and tourism sector expansion.

2.2. Inflation Dynamics

According to UN data, inflation in Uzbekistan shows a steady downward trend:

The data indicates a consistent decline in inflation from 17.5% in 2018 to a projected 5.6% in 2027, pointing to the effectiveness of anti-inflationary policies.

2.3. Monetary Policy

The UN report notes that central banks of several economies in transition, including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, tilted towards tightening monetary policy in 2025 amid elevated inflation. This reflects a proactive approach by regulators to ensure price stability.

According to UN expert forecasts, moderating inflation could create scope for gradual rate reductions in some economies in the region in 2026.

2.4. Regional Context: CIS and Central Asia

The report emphasizes that while the Russian Federation’s economy experienced a marked slowdown, most countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia have maintained strong economic momentum. According to UN projections, this divergence is expected to continue in 2026.

As noted in the UN analysis, the benefits of serving as trans-shipment hubs for trade with the Russian Federation have gradually diminished for the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Nevertheless, robust economic growth persisted across most countries in these areas, supported by strong domestic drivers, including buoyant private consumption, declining unemployment, solid remittance inflows, and rapid household credit growth.

The report particularly highlights supportive fiscal policy directed towards domestic investment, including regional infrastructure projects developed in cooperation with China.

2.5. Uzbekistan in the LLDC Category

Uzbekistan is officially part of the group of landlocked developing countries (LLDCs). According to UN estimates, economic growth for LLDCs is projected at 4.9% in both 2026 and 2027, down from an estimated 5.3% in 2025.

The report indicates that remittances remain an important source of support for domestic demand in countries such as Nepal and Tajikistan. A similar situation characterizes Uzbekistan, where migrant remittances play a significant role in sustaining consumer demand.

2.6. Comparative Table of Forecasts for CIS Countries

III. Key Risks and Challenges

The UN report identifies several key risks that may impact economic development both globally and in the regional context:

Trade Uncertainty: According to UN expert assessments, tariff measures and protectionist policies create significant uncertainty, raising trade costs and placing particular pressure on developing economies.

Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions in various regions of the world, and strategic rivalries continue to influence global macroeconomic conditions.

Climate Risks: The report notes increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events. For landlocked developing countries, including Uzbekistan, persistent logistics constraints remain major structural challenges.

Financial Risks: According to UN assessments, elevated asset valuations and rising leverage heighten the risk of abrupt financial corrections.

Demographic Challenges: In the European part of the CIS, adverse demographic trends such as declining birth rates, emigration, and population aging continue to weigh on growth prospects.

IV. International Initiatives

The UN report particularly highlights important international initiatives of 2025:

The Sevilla Commitment (Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development) set out an ambitious agenda to scale up development finance, address the debt crisis, and reform the international financial architecture.

The Doha Political Declaration (Second World Summit for Social Development) reaffirmed the global commitment to poverty eradication, decent work, and social inclusion.

The Belém Package (COP30) advanced the climate agenda, including a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035 and the establishment of the Just Transition Mechanism.

Conclusion

Analysis of the UN WESP 2026 report indicates that Uzbekistan occupies a special place among developing countries and demonstrates significantly higher economic growth rates compared to global averages.

Uzbekistan’s projected GDP growth of 6.0% in 2026 is more than twice the global average (2.7%). The consistent decline in inflation from double-digit levels to a projected 5.6% by 2027 indicates the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy.

At the same time, as noted in the UN report, structural challenges characteristic of landlocked countries persist: logistics constraints, dependence on commodity exports, and the need for economic diversification. Successfully addressing these challenges, combined with continued economic reforms, will enable Uzbekistan to maintain its positive development trajectory and strengthen its role in the regional economy.

Source:

United Nations (2026). World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026.

UN DESA, UNCTAD and the UN Regional Commissions.

https://unctad.org/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026

https://www.un.org/en/desa