The January 2026 CPI recorded a moderate monthly increase alongside a noticeable reshaping of the main contributors—from food to insurance services—against the backdrop of Uzbekistan’s transition to an updated, internationally comparable CPI methodology.

Introduction

According to the press release of the Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in January 2026 the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) amounted to 100.7% month-on-month and 107.2% year-on-year. For comparison, in January 2025 the headline CPI was also 100.7% month-on-month, while the year-on-year indicator was 109.9%.

A separate measure is calculated excluding fruits and vegetables: 100.6% month-on-month and 108.1% year-on-year (in January 2025: 100.4% and 112.0%, respectively). This allows assessment of the underlying inflation environment without the pronounced seasonality of the fruit-and-vegetable segment.

Main analysis

1) What drove price growth in January 2026

Food as the primary short-term driver. The most substantial impact on the monthly headline CPI came from “Food and non-alcoholic beverages”: its contribution was +0.32 percentage points (p.p.), or 47.8% of the total monthly change in the headline index.

Within the food basket, the press release reports monthly increases in a number of core items:

• meat: lamb +1.6% month-on-month (and +27.2% vs January 2025), boneless beef +1.1% (+25.0% y/y), beef with bone +1.0% (+23.8% y/y), poultry +1.4–1.5% (+5.3–5.8% y/y);

• raw milk +1.0% (+6.0% y/y), eggs +0.6% (+0.3% y/y);

• vegetable oils on average +0.4% (+12.8% y/y);

• granulated sugar +1.0% while declining year-on-year (−3.7% vs January 2025).

At the same time, several items became cheaper: rice −1.1% month-on-month (−16.7% y/y), refined sugar −0.4% (−2.3% y/y).

Fruits and vegetables: the most seasonal/volatile block. The largest monthly increases were recorded for: bell pepper +18.5%, bananas +6.3%, lemons +4.9% (with lemons +90.8% y/y), cabbage +3.8%, potatoes +1.9%, carrots +1.8%, onions +1.2%. At the same time, prices fell for mandarins −2.4%, oranges −2.3%, tomatoes −2.1%.

Utilities and fuels: local tariff changes and expanded observation. In “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels”, market prices rose for coal +2.3% and firewood +1.7% (these items were added to price monitoring from January 2026). In certain regions, tariffs increased: on average nationwide, waste removal +0.2%, heating +0.3%, hot water supply +0.9%.

Healthcare: broad-based increases across service segments. The press release reports price growth for diagnostic imaging services +1.5% month-on-month (+9.4% y/y), outpatient treatment and rehabilitation +1.0% (+8.8% y/y), medical laboratories +0.7% (+9.0% y/y), inpatient services +0.7% (+6.7% y/y), dentistry +0.7% (+4.7% y/y), and therapeutic massage +0.7% (+5.3% y/y).

Transport: mixed dynamics. Gasoline rose +0.6% (by grade: AI-92 +0.6%, AI-95 +0.4%, AI-98/AI-100 +0.3%). Propane increased +8.9% (with a maximum price of 8,500 UZS/litre) and +12.3% y/y. Methane changed marginally +0.1%, remaining 30.2% above its level at the beginning of 2025. Driver-training courses/lessons/exams/licensing rose on average by 5.0%, attributed to higher exam fees. Meanwhile, long-distance rail fares declined −0.5% and airfares fell −5.0% on average; the press release links this to the strengthening of the national currency and changes in tariffs for the monitored routes.

Information and communication: mobile services up. Mobile communication services increased +2.4% month-on-month (+17.9% y/y). Prices for streaming services declined −0.2%, and paid subscriptions to messaging platforms and AI services decreased −0.8% month-on-month.

Insurance: the sharpest price shift of the month. After a long period of stability, from January 2026 the press release reports an increase in insurance service prices: the CPI for insurance of personal vehicles reached 381.8% month-on-month. Given its weight in the basket, this raised the headline CPI by 0.11 p.p.

2) CPI by sections and by broad groups: where inflation is faster

By CPI sections (COICOP RU 2018) for January 2026 (to December 2025 / to January 2025), the press release highlights:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 100.8 / 105.4

• Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels: 100.2 / 117.0

• Transport: 100.3 / 112.1

• Information and communication: 101.1 / 110.1

• Restaurants and hotels: 100.7 / 108.4

• Insurance and financial services: 140.8 / 140.0

By major groupings (goods/services), the profile is as follows:

• Goods: 100.6% month-on-month and 105.4% y/y;

• Food goods: 100.8% month-on-month and 105.5% y/y;

• Non-food goods: 100.4% month-on-month and 105.2% y/y;

• Services: 100.8% month-on-month and 113.5% y/y.

A key analytical implication of this structure: despite similar monthly growth rates (around 0.8% for services and 0.8% for food), year-on-year inflation in services remains substantially higher than in goods, indicating persistent price pressures in service sectors.

3) Regional breakdown: no material deviations from the national average

In the regional breakdown, the press release notes that no sharp deviations from the national average were recorded for either the monthly or year-on-year CPI. Virtually all regions showed 100.6–100.7% month-on-month and 106.7–107.7% y/y, while Tashkent city recorded 100.7% and 107.2%, respectively.

4) Contributions to the headline CPI: how +0.67 p.p. was formed

The combined impact of sections on the monthly change in the headline CPI totalled +0.67 p.p. The largest components were:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +0.32 p.p.

• Insurance and financial services together with “Household goods and services; miscellaneous goods and services”: +0.18 p.p.

• All other sections combined: +0.17 p.p.

In year-on-year terms, the press release emphasizes that the largest contribution to the annual increase in the headline CPI came from “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” and “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels”: their combined contribution reached 4.05 p.p., i.e., more than half of the total year-on-year increase.

Methodology: why January 2026 matters for data comparability

From January 2026, an updated CPI methodology was introduced, developed with international standards in mind and with expert support from the IMF. Key changes include:

1. Expanded data sources (CAPI, administrative transactional data from online cash registers, service-provider data via eStat and from retailers, web scraping, CATI) and rules for combining data with different collection frequencies.

2. Longer price-collection period, extended from 11 to 25 days (1–25 of the month), and refined collection schedules by source, including weekly monitoring of prices for 30 socially significant items.

3. Revised list of goods and services: from January 2026 the CPI is calculated for 517 items (in 2025: 510); 23 items were added and 16 were removed as no longer representative.

4. Change in the calculation formula: instead of the modified Laspeyres (Lowe) formula, the CPI is calculated using a modified arithmetic Young formula; additionally, for analytical purposes a CPI based on the geometric Young formula is produced.

5. New publication schedule: from 2026 the press release and tables are published on the 5th day of the month following the reporting month.

The press release also provides the geometric Young CPI for January 2026: 100.6% month-on-month, with a notable difference for the insurance section (121.3%) compared to the main CPI for that section (140.8% vs December 2025). This underscores the role of the alternative index as an analytical instrument rather than a replacement for the headline measure.

Conclusions

1. Monthly inflation in January 2026 (100.7%) matched January 2025, but the year-on-year CPI is lower (107.2% versus 109.9%), reflecting a different annual trajectory.

2. In the short term, food contributed the most to inflation (nearly half of the total monthly effect, +0.32 p.p.), with an additional meaningful impulse from insurance services.

3. Services continue to show elevated year-on-year inflation (113.5%), which is relevant for business planning of tariffs, contracts, and cost structures.

4. Regional dynamics are broadly uniform, reducing the risk of misinterpreting inflation as a localized phenomenon; the changes are of a nationwide nature.

5. January 2026 is a transition point to an updated CPI methodology, expanding data sources, the observation window, and the basket composition, thereby improving coverage of price changes and alignment with international practice.

Source: Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan