Key Inflation Indicators

In July 2025, the consolidated Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. Since the beginning of the year (relative to December 2024), prices have increased by 4.0%.

The annual inflation rate was 8.9%, which is significantly lower than the 10.5% rate in July 2024. The average monthly CPI growth for January-July 2025 was 0.6%, slightly lower than the 0.7% for the same period in 2024.

Excluding prices for fruits and vegetables, which are subject to strong seasonal fluctuations, the monthly CPI increased by 0.5%, and the annual rate was 10.2%.

Price Dynamics by Main Groups

The main driver of the monthly deflation was the seasonal price drop for food products, which decreased by an average of 1.0%. Meanwhile, non-food products became more expensive by 0.2%, and services rose by 0.9%.

Price changes in July 2025 compared to June 2025:

• Food products: -1.0%

• Non-food products: +0.2%

• Services: +0.9%

On an annual basis (July 2025 vs. July 2024), the highest price growth was observed in the services sector at 16.3%. This is largely due to the ongoing liberalization of tariffs in the utilities sector. Non-food products increased in price by 7.1% over the year, while food products rose by 6.5%.

What Influenced Inflation in July?

The greatest downward impact on the consolidated CPI came from the price decrease in the “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” category, which reduced the final index by 0.48 percentage points (p.p.).

Key food price changes:

• Fruits and nuts: -9.1%

• Vegetables, tubers, and legumes: -4.8%

• Milk, dairy products, and eggs: -0.8%

• Meat (fresh, chilled, or frozen): +1.9%

On the other hand, the price increase for “Housing services, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels” (+1.4% for the month) and “Transport” (+0.5% for the month) collectively increased the consolidated CPI by 0.22 p.p.. Specifically, from July 2025, tariffs for cold water supply and sewerage services were updated in the Bukhara, Namangan, Syrdarya, and Tashkent regions, as well as for solid waste removal and maintenance of multi-apartment buildings in several other regions.

Regional Inflation

Regionally, monthly inflation was higher than the national average (-0.2%) in the Bukhara (+0.1%), Navoi (+0.1%), Namangan (+0.1%), Samarkand (+0.1%), Syrdarya (+0.7%) and Tashkent (+0.1%) regions.

The highest annual inflation rates were recorded in the Fergana (9.9%), Syrdarya (9.5%), Surkhandarya (9.1%), Navoi (9.0%), and Khorezm (9.0%) regions.

Contribution to Inflation Since the Beginning of the Year

For the period from January to July 2025, the largest contribution to the growth of the consolidated CPI (+4.0%) came from tariff changes in the sections “Housing services, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels” (+1.79 p.p.) and “Transport” (+0.88 p.p.). The combined contribution of these two sections, along with “Household goods and services” and “Healthcare,” amounted to 3.14 p.p., or 78.3% of the total price growth since the beginning of the year.

Source: UZSTAT