1. Introduction

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key macroeconomic indicator that reflects the level of inflation in a country and the dynamics of price changes for consumer goods and services. In January 2025, the Agency of Statistics under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan published official CPI data, providing insights into the current inflationary trends, price dynamics in major categories of goods and services, and overall economic conditions.

2. Key CPI Indicators for January 2025

• Overall CPI for the month: 100.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) higher than in January 2024.
• Annual CPI (compared to January 2024): 109.9%, up 1.3 p.p. from the previous year, but 2.3 p.p. lower than in January 2023.
• Short-term CPI for services: 101.1%, which is 0.5 p.p. higher than for goods.
• Annual CPI for services: 127.0%, the highest level in the last five years.

3. CPI Dynamics by Key Categories of Goods and Services

Inflationary trends varied across different categories of goods and services, showing an uneven distribution of price changes.

Food Products

• CPI for the month: 100.8%.
• Annual price increase: 102.6%.

Non-Food Products

• CPI for the month: 100.3%.
• Annual increase: 107.7%.

Services

• CPI for the month: 101.1%.
• Annual increase: 127.0%, marking a five-year high.

4. Price Change Structure

In January 2025, different categories contributed unequally to the overall CPI growth:

• Food products accounted for 51.4% of total CPI growth.
• Non-food products contributed 15.3%.
• Services accounted for 33.3%.

In annual terms, the largest contributor to inflation was the increase in service prices (62.6%), driven by higher tariffs for utilities, healthcare, and education.

5. Impact of Price Changes on Key Consumer Categories

• Fruits and vegetables had a deflationary impact on inflation – CPI excluding this category stood at 100.4%, 0.3 p.p. lower than the general index.
• Housing services, electricity, gas, and water showed the highest price increase over the year – up by 137.4%.
• Educational services saw a monthly increase of 103.5% and an annual rise of 136.2%.
• Healthcare services rose by 101.2% in the month and by 117.3% year-over-year.
• Transport services recorded a monthly price increase of 100.5% and an annual increase of 113.7%.

6. Factors Influencing Inflation

Several external and internal factors affected the CPI dynamics:

1. Rising utility tariffs – increased costs for electricity, gas, and water had a major impact on the overall CPI.
2. Higher import costs – depreciation of the Uzbek sum (UZS) led to price increases for imported non-food products.
3. Wage growth and social benefits – higher disposable income among consumers fueled demand-driven inflation.
4. Global commodity price fluctuations – changes in energy and food prices influenced the local market.
5. Seasonal effects – the winter period typically sees higher food prices due to supply constraints.

7. CPI Calculation Methodology

Uzbekistan’s CPI is calculated based on data from over 10,000 retail and service providers. The index covers 420 goods and 90 services, accurately representing the real consumer basket. Price data is collected between the 10th and 20th of each month, ensuring minimal lag in reflecting market changes.

8. Conclusions and Forecast

The CPI analysis for January 2025 indicates that inflation remains stable but with significant pressure from service costs. The main inflation risks for the coming months include:

• Further increases in utility tariffs.
• Possible currency fluctuations.
• Seasonal food price volatility.

The forecast for the next few months suggests CPI will remain within 100.5–101.2% on a monthly basis and 8.5–10.0% annually, aligning with the Central Bank’s monetary policy targets.