INVEXI: Investment Consulting Management Company

Global Forecast and Prospects for Uzbekistan

Analytical Review of “Global Economic Prospects, January 2026”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The World Bank has published its latest Global Economic Prospects report (January 2026), presenting a comprehensive analysis of global economic trends and regional forecasts. Key findings indicate that the global economy is maintaining resilience amid unprecedented uncertainty in trade and economic policy, though growth rates remain moderate, potentially making the 2020s the weakest decade for the global economy since the 1960s.

For Uzbekistan, the outlook remains positive: the country continues to demonstrate some of the highest growth rates in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, though a gradual slowdown is expected from 6.2% in 2025 to 6.0% in 2026 and 5.9% in 2027.

I. GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT

1.1. General Global Economic Trends

The global economy is proving more resilient than previously expected, despite persistent trade tensions and economic policy uncertainty. According to World Bank projections:

2026: global economic growth will reach 2.6% (an upward revision from the June forecast)
2027: expected to accelerate to 2.7%

This resilience is largely driven by stronger-than-expected growth, especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the 2026 forecast.

1.2. Critical Assessment of the Decade

Key finding of the report: if these forecasts hold, the 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s. This has serious implications:

Sluggish growth is widening the gap in living standards worldwide
By the end of 2025, per capita incomes in nearly all advanced economies exceeded their 2019 levels
However, about one in four developing economies had lower per capita incomes compared to 2019

1.3. Growth Drivers in 2025

In 2025, global economic growth was supported by:

Surge in trade ahead of policy changes
Swift readjustments in global supply chains
Easing global financial conditions
Narrowing sovereign spreads and rising equity prices

1.4. Outlook for 2026-2027

These temporary boosts are expected to fade in 2026:

Softening trade and domestic demand
Easing financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown
Global inflation is projected at 2.6% in 2026 (reflecting softer labor markets and lower energy prices)
Growth is expected to pick up in 2027 as trade flows adjust and policy uncertainty diminishes

1.5. Developing Economy Forecast

The report pays special attention to developing economies:

2025: growth of 4.2%
2026: slowdown to 4.0%
2027: modest acceleration to 4.1%

Low-income countries will show higher growth rates:

2026-2027: averaging 5.6% (buoyed by firming domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation)

However, a critical challenge remains:

Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected at 3% in 2026
This is about one percentage point below the 2000-2019 average
At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12% of the level in advanced economies

1.6. The Employment Challenge

Over the next decade, 1.2 billion young people will reach working age in developing economies. The World Bank identifies three key pillars to address the jobs challenge:

Strengthening capital: physical, digital, and human to raise productivity and employability
Improving the business environment: enhancing policy credibility and regulatory certainty
Mobilizing private capital at scale to support investment

1.7. Position of the World Bank Chief Economist

Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group, emphasizes:

“With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty. But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets.”

Recommendations for governments:

Aggressively liberalize private investment and trade
Rein in public consumption
Invest in new technologies and education

II. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2.1. Regional Overview

The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region shows moderate growth amid a complex geopolitical situation:

2025 (estimate): 2.4% (slowdown)
2026 (forecast): 2.4% (steady)
2027 (forecast): 2.7% (strengthening)

Excluding Russia, Türkiye, and Ukraine:

Average regional growth in 2026-2027 is projected at 3.1%

2.2. Factors Behind the 2025 Slowdown

The regional slowdown in 2025 primarily reflects:

Decline in private consumption, especially in the Russian Federation, due to lagged effects of tight monetary policy
External headwinds amid heightened trade policy uncertainty
Weak eurozone growth, constraining exports, especially in Central Europe’s and Western Balkans’ automotive industries

Important note: although the region’s direct dependence on the U.S. market is limited, it remains vulnerable due to value chain integration and spillovers from further eurozone slowdown.

2.3. Positive Factors in 2025

Despite the slowdown, positive trends were observed:

Moderate trade growth in the first half of 2025 (partly due to frontloading ahead of tariff increases)
Easing global financial conditions, narrowing sovereign spreads, and rising equity prices
Tourism and remittances remained important drivers of economic activity (though their contribution to regional growth declined)

2.4. Inflationary Pressures

The inflation situation in the ECA region requires special attention:

Inflation slowed in the first half of 2025 but reaccelerated in the second half
Median headline and core inflation remain elevated, above pre-pandemic levels
In most countries, inflation exceeds central bank targets

Sources of price pressures:

Rising prices for food and utilities (especially in Central Asia and Romania)
Ongoing robust wage growth

Central bank response: most central banks maintained their monetary policy stance unchanged.

2.5. 2026 Outlook

Regional growth in 2026 is expected to remain steady at 2.4%. Supporting factors include:

Positive factors:

Resilient domestic demand supported by declining inflation
Improved financial conditions
Accelerated EU funds absorption
Rising defense spending

Negative factors:

Trade slowdown due to weak eurozone growth
Escalating trade tensions

2.6. Inflation Forecast

Headline inflation in the ECA region is expected to gradually decline in 2026 due to stabilizing commodity prices.

However:

In most countries, inflation will remain above central bank targets
This implies a cautious approach to monetary policy easing

2.7. Fiscal Consolidation

While many countries plan fiscal consolidation in 2026-2027:

Deficit reduction is expected to be moderate
Will have only a limited restraining impact on economic growth

2.8. Regional Demographic Challenges

The ECA region faces unique labor and demographic challenges:

Aging population:

Slowing labor force growth (except in Central Asia)
By 2050, the region’s dependency ratio will increase to 63%

Youth employment:

Over the next decade, about 63 million young people will enter working age
Limited job creation and skills mismatches may hinder their employment prospects

2.9. Risks for the ECA Region

The forecast is characterized by downside risks related to potential growth slowdown:

Downside risks:

Geopolitical risks: prolonged or escalating conflict → persistent high uncertainty and further weakening of economic activity
Trade tensions: further escalation in global trade → declining trade and investment (especially in open economies of Central Europe and Western Balkans)
Persistent inflation: tight labor markets, accelerating wage growth, rising tariffs, and supply chain disruptions
Tightening financial conditions: capital outflows, exchange rate pressures, higher borrowing costs (especially in countries with large external financing needs)
Climate risks: more frequent and severe extreme weather events

Upside potential:

Conflict resolution: earlier-than-expected end to active hostilities → accelerated investment in Ukraine’s reconstruction and improved investor confidence
Regional integration: deepening integration supported by new agreements
Artificial intelligence: faster productivity gains (especially in Central Europe with retraining and innovation policies)

III. CENTRAL ASIA: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

3.1. Subregional Overview

Central Asia demonstrates some of the highest economic growth rates in the ECA region, significantly outpacing European countries as well as the South Caucasus and Western Balkans.

3.2. Central Asian Countries: Comparative Forecast Table

Country	2023	2024	2025 (estimate)	2026 (forecast)	2027 (forecast)
Kazakhstan	5.1%	5.0%	6.0%	4.5%	3.9%
Kyrgyz Republic	9.0%	9.0%	9.2%	6.5%	6.8%
Tajikistan	8.3%	8.4%	8.0%	6.2%	4.7%
Uzbekistan	6.3%	6.6%	6.2%	6.0%	5.9%

Note: The World Bank does not publish data for Turkmenistan due to a lack of reliable, adequate-quality data.

3.3. Key Subregional Observations

2025 Growth Leaders:
- Kyrgyz Republic – record 9.2% (highest in the ECA region)
- Tajikistan – 8.0%
- Uzbekistan – 6.2%
- Kazakhstan – 6.0%
Deceleration Trend:
- All Central Asian countries show gradual growth deceleration in 2026-2027
- This reflects global trends and normalization after the recovery period
Growth Resilience:
- Even with deceleration, Central Asian growth rates remain significantly above global averages (2.6-2.7%) and regional averages (2.4-2.7%)
- Uzbekistan demonstrates the most stable forecast among Central Asian countries

IV. UZBEKISTAN: DETAILED ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

4.1. Uzbekistan’s GDP Growth Dynamics

Uzbekistan continues to demonstrate sustained and high economic growth rates:

Year	GDP Growth Rate	Characteristics
2023	6.3%	Base year of strong growth
2024	6.6%	Growth acceleration
2025	6.2% (estimate)	Slight deceleration
2026	6.0% (forecast)	Continued deceleration
2027	5.9% (forecast)	Stabilization

4.2. Uzbekistan’s Positioning

In the global context:

Uzbekistan’s growth rates are more than double the global average (2.6-2.7%)
Significantly outpacing average developing economy growth (4.0-4.1%)

In the regional context (ECA):

Uzbekistan shows growth rates 2.5 times higher than the regional average (2.4-2.7%)
In 2025, ranks third among Central Asian countries after Kyrgyzstan (9.2%) and Tajikistan (8.0%)

In the subregional context (Central Asia):

Uzbekistan shows the most stable growth trajectory without sharp fluctuations
Projected deceleration is minimal: only 0.3 percentage points over two years (from 6.2% to 5.9%)

4.3. Uzbekistan’s Economic Strengths

Uzbekistan’s high and stable growth rates are driven by:

Structural reforms: continuation of economic liberalization initiated in 2017
Domestic demand: sustained consumption amid rising household incomes
Investment activity: large-scale infrastructure projects and FDI attraction
Demographic dividend: young and growing population (unlike most ECA countries)
Economic diversification: development of non-commodity sectors

4.4. Factors Behind Projected Deceleration

The slight slowdown in 2026-2027 is attributable to:

External factors:

Global trade slowdown and trade policy uncertainty
Weak growth in key trading partners (eurozone, Russian Federation, China)
Normalizing commodity prices (including natural gas, gold, cotton)

Internal factors:

Base effect: after several years of high growth
Capacity constraints: time needed for investment project implementation
Inflationary pressures: especially in food and utilities (noted by the World Bank for Central Asia)

4.5. Inflation and Monetary Policy

The World Bank specifically notes for Central Asia:

Price pressures primarily driven by rising food and utility prices
Ongoing robust wage growth

This requires the Central Bank of Uzbekistan to:

Maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy easing
Balance growth support and inflation containment

4.6. Uzbekistan’s Demographic Advantage

Unlike most ECA countries facing aging population challenges, Uzbekistan has a demographic advantage:

Positive aspects:

Young population: significant youth share in population structure
Growing labor force (unlike other regional countries facing labor force growth slowdown)

Challenges:

Need to create sufficient jobs for the growing labor force
Addressing skills mismatches with labor market needs
Investing in education and vocational training

4.7. Strategic Recommendations for Uzbekistan

Based on World Bank analysis, to maintain high growth rates, Uzbekistan needs to:

1. Productivity enhancement:

Invest in digital technologies and artificial intelligence
Modernize physical infrastructure
Develop human capital through education and healthcare

2. Business environment improvement:

Enhance transparency and regulatory predictability
Strengthen rule of law and property rights protection
Reduce administrative barriers for businesses

3. Private capital mobilization:

Develop the financial sector and financing instruments
Create conditions for public-private partnerships
Attract foreign direct investment to priority sectors

4. Economic diversification:

Develop export-oriented non-commodity sectors
Support innovation and technology startups
Develop the services sector and digital economy

5. Regional integration:

Deepen trade and economic cooperation in Central Asia
Participate in regional infrastructure projects
Develop transport and logistics capacity

6. Fiscal sustainability:

Prudent public debt management
Build fiscal buffers to counter external shocks
Enhance public spending efficiency

4.8. Risks and Opportunities for Uzbekistan

Key risks:

External trade risks: escalating trade tensions and protectionism globally
Geopolitical risks: escalating regional conflicts affecting trade routes
Commodity risks: volatility in key export commodity prices
Climate risks: droughts and extreme weather events affecting agriculture
Financial risks: tightening global financial conditions, higher borrowing costs

Key opportunities:

Demographic dividend: leveraging growing labor force for economic growth
Digitalization: accelerated adoption of digital technologies and AI
Regional integration: benefits from deepening economic ties in Central Asia
Transit potential: development as a transport and logistics hub
Green energy: investments in renewable energy sources

V. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: UZBEKISTAN AND OTHER REGIONAL COUNTRIES

5.1. Uzbekistan vs Central European Countries

Central Europe (Poland, Romania):

Poland: 3.3% (2025) → 3.2% (2026) → 2.9% (2027)
Romania: 0.8% (2025) → 1.3% (2026) → 1.9% (2027)

Uzbekistan outpaces Central European countries by almost twofold in growth rates.

5.2. Uzbekistan vs South Caucasus Countries

South Caucasus:

Georgia: 7.0% (2025) → 5.5% (2026) → 5.0% (2027)
Armenia: 5.2% (2025) → 4.9% (2026) → 4.7% (2027)
Azerbaijan: 1.9% (2025) → 1.8% (2026) → 1.7% (2027)

Uzbekistan shows more stable dynamics than Georgia (sharp slowdown from 7.0% to 5.0%) and significantly outpaces Armenia and Azerbaijan.

5.3. Uzbekistan vs Türkiye

Türkiye (largest economy in the ECA region):

3.5% (2025) → 3.7% (2026) → 4.4% (2027)

Uzbekistan significantly outpaces Türkiye in growth rates, though the economic scales are incomparable.

5.4. Uzbekistan vs Russian Federation

Russian Federation:

0.9% (2025) → 0.8% (2026) → 1.0% (2027)

Uzbekistan demonstrates growth rates 6-7 times higher than Russian indicators.

5.5. Uzbekistan’s Competitive Advantages

Forecast stability: minimal deviation between years (5.9-6.2%)
Demographic potential: growing young population
Geographic location: potential as a transit hub between Europe and Asia
Natural resources: significant reserves of natural gas, gold, uranium
Reform momentum: continuation of structural reforms

VI. GLOBAL TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON UZBEKISTAN

6.1. Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Sustainability

The World Bank pays special attention to fiscal rules in developing countries. Key findings:

More than half of developing economies have at least one fiscal rule in place
Countries with fiscal rules typically see budget balance improvement of 1.4 percentage points of GDP after five years
Fiscal rules increase the likelihood of multi-year budget balance improvements by 9 percentage points

For Uzbekistan, this means the need to:

Develop clear fiscal rules
Establish limits on deficits and public debt
Strengthen the institutional framework for rule compliance

6.2. Debt Sustainability

M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank, emphasizes:

“With public debt in emerging and developing economies at its highest level in more than half a century, restoring fiscal credibility has become an urgent priority.”

Uzbekistan is in a relatively favorable position in terms of debt burden but should:

Maintain a cautious approach to debt accumulation
Direct borrowing toward productive investments
Develop the domestic capital market

6.3. Trade Policy and Global Chains

The World Bank forecasts increased uncertainty in trade policy. For Uzbekistan, this means:

Challenges:

Potential decline in global trade
Value chain restructuring
Protectionist measures in advanced economies

Opportunities:

Export market diversification
Participation in regional trade agreements
Development of intraregional trade in Central Asia

6.4. Technology and Productivity

Artificial intelligence and digitalization can accelerate productivity growth. For Uzbekistan, it is critical to:

Invest in digital infrastructure
Develop the IT sector and digital services
Digitalize government services
Train workforce in digital technologies
Create a favorable environment for technology startups

VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Key Conclusions

Unfavorable global context: the global economy is experiencing one of its weakest growth periods since the 1960s (2.6-2.7%)
Uzbekistan among leaders: the country demonstrates some of the highest growth rates in the ECA region (6.0-6.2%)
Trajectory stability: Uzbekistan shows the most resilient dynamics among Central Asian countries
Natural gradual slowdown: slight deceleration (from 6.2% to 5.9%) reflects global trends and high base effects
Demographic advantage: unlike most ECA countries, Uzbekistan has a young and growing population
Regional leadership: Central Asia overall outpaces other ECA subregions in growth rates
Risks persist: trade tensions, inflation, geopolitical uncertainty

7.2. Strategic Priorities for Uzbekistan

To maintain high growth rates and enhance competitiveness:

Short-term priorities (2026-2027):

Inflation management: balanced monetary policy
Fiscal discipline: prudent public finance management
Business support: reducing administrative barriers
Infrastructure projects: completing initiated investments

Medium-term priorities (through 2030):

Economic diversification: developing non-commodity sectors
Digital transformation: implementing modern technologies
Human capital development: education and healthcare reforms
Regional integration: deepening Central Asian ties
Investment attraction: improving the investment climate

Long-term priorities (through 2040):

Knowledge economy: transition to innovation-based economy
Green economy: investments in renewable energy
Regional leadership: positioning as Central Asia’s economic center
Social development: achieving high living standards

7.3. Risk-Oriented Approach

Risk management:

Building fiscal buffers to counter external shocks
Export diversification by products and destinations
Domestic market development to reduce external demand dependence
Financial system strengthening to ensure stability
Climate adaptation: measures against droughts and climate risks

Leveraging opportunities:

Demographic dividend: converting young population into competitive advantage
Digital leap: accelerated modernization through digital technologies
Regional cooperation: joint projects with neighbors
Transit potential: developing transport corridors
Green investments: attracting international financing for renewable energy

7.4. Concluding Remarks

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report (January 2026) confirms that Uzbekistan is on the right development trajectory. Despite the complex global context and projected global economic slowdown, the country continues to demonstrate high and stable growth rates, significantly exceeding both global and regional averages.

The key to success lies in continuing structural reforms, investing in human capital and infrastructure, diversifying the economy, and effectively leveraging the demographic advantage. With sound economic policies, Uzbekistan has every opportunity not only to maintain current growth rates but also to create a foundation for sustainable long-term development.

The World Bank’s forecast – 6.0% in 2026 and 5.9% in 2027 – is not a ceiling but a baseline scenario that can be exceeded with effective economic policy implementation and favorable external conditions.

APPENDIX: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Data sources:

Methodological notes:

All forecasts are based on year-on-year percentage changes
GDP at market prices (2010-2019 average U.S. dollar prices)
“e” = estimate; “f” = forecast
World Bank forecasts are frequently updated with new information

World Bank report publication date: January 13, 2026

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