The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan has released its Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2026–2028, presenting recent macroeconomic and inflation developments and baseline projections for the 2026-2028 period. Monetary policy is conducted with the objective of ensuring price stability and reducing inflation to the medium-term target of 5 percent.
Macroeconomic conditions in 2025
In 2025, Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to maintain steady and relatively high growth, with real GDP projected at around 7–7.5 percent. Economic activity is supported by stronger investment, higher consumer demand in line with rising household incomes, and robust export performance. Increased investment activity, supported by higher inflows of foreign investment and rapid credit expansion, is contributing to strong growth in the services, industry and construction sectors. Budget revenues have grown faster than expenditures, supporting fiscal consolidation and a more balanced fiscal position.
Risks related to import supply for certain consumer goods led to higher inflation in the first quarter of 2025 and a temporary rise in inflation expectations. In response, in March the Central Bank tightened monetary policy by raising the policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 14 percent per annum. The relatively tight monetary stance, and a decline in imported inflation due to a stronger exchange rate contributed to an easing of inflationary pressures and inflation expectations in the third quarter. Overall inflation is projected to be close to 8 percent by end-2025.
Medium-term outlook and risks
Medium-term forecasts for 2026–2028 are based on a baseline macroeconomic scenario reflecting expectations about the evolution of external and domestic conditions. Externally, global growth is assumed to remain relatively weak amid persisting uncertainties. Domestically, the scenario assumes:
- a gradual stabilisation of aggregate demand;
- a normalisation of credit growth;
- wage increases in line with labour productivity;
- remittance growth returning to its medium-term trajectory;
- a stable inflow of investment and a fiscal deficit not exceeding 3 percent of GDP.
Under this scenario, real GDP growth is projected at 5.5–6.5 percent in 2026 and 6–7 percent in 2027–2028.
The Central Bank remains firmly committed to its 5-percent medium-term inflation target. Overall inflation is projected to decline to 7 percent by end-2026, to reach the target in 2027, and from 2028 onwards to remain around this level. Ensuring low and stable inflation will also require structural reforms to strengthen competition, improve trade openness, energy security, infrastructure and the financial sector.
The executive summary of the Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2026–2028 is available at the link below.