Macroeconomic Dynamics, Structural Shifts, and Business Impulses

1. Demographics as the Foundation of Economic Growth

The resident population of the Republic of Uzbekistan continues to grow confidently. As of January 1, 2025, it stood at 37,543.2 thousand people, and by January 1, 2026, it reached 38,236.7 thousand people. The absolute increase for the year was 693.5 thousand people, corresponding to approximately 1.85% annual population growth.

Economic Significance of the Dynamics

This pace of demographic growth is a substantial macroeconomic factor, as it simultaneously:

• Expands the domestic consumer market;

• Forms long-term demand for housing, infrastructure, education, and services;

• Increases the potential workforce;

• Strengthens the multiplier effect of domestic demand.

For the economy, this means an expansion of scale, rather than just a mechanical growth of indicators.

2. GDP: Sustainable Growth Amidst Economic Expansion

The growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 was 107.7% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. For comparison, in 2024, this indicator was at the level of 106.7%.

What Lies Behind the Numbers

GDP growth:

• Is not only maintained but is moderately accelerating;

• Is occurring against the backdrop of population growth, meaning the economy is not growing extensively, but rather within the conditions of an expanding base;

• Confirms the ability of key sectors to support the general economic momentum.

This creates an image of a sustainably developing economy, rather than a short-term cycle.

3. Inflation: Deceleration as a Stabilization Factor

Consumer Price Index (relative to December of the previous year):

• 2024 — 109.8%

• 2025 — 107.3%

A reduction in inflation rates by 2.5 percentage points is an important structural signal.

Economic Significance

The slowdown in inflation:

• Increases the predictability of the business environment;

• Supports the real incomes of the population;

• Reduces pressure on consumer demand;

• Forms a more stable environment for investment and long-term planning.

Against the backdrop of continuing GDP growth, this appears as a qualitative improvement in the macroeconomic balance.

4. Industry: Stability Without Overheating

Physical volume index of industrial production:

• 2024 — 106.5%

• 2025 — 106.8%

Interpretation

Industry demonstrates:

• Stable growth;

• Absence of sharp fluctuations;

• Preservation of production potential.

This suggests that the industrial sector is functioning as a pillar of the economy, rather than a source of volatility.

5. Retail Trade: Reflection of Vibrant Domestic Demand

Growth rates of retail trade turnover:

• 2024 — 111.2%

• 2025 — 111.7%

Why This Is Important

Retail trade growth:

• Exceeds GDP growth rates;

• Reflects active consumer behavior;

• Is directly linked to population and income growth.

For business, this is a signal of a sustainable domestic market capable of supporting the development of trade, services, and production.

6. Construction: Accelerating Investment Contour

Growth rates of construction work volume:

• 2024 — 110.0%

• 2025 — 114.2%

Economic Meaning

The construction sector:

• Demonstrates noticeable acceleration;

• Reflects the activation of investments;

• Is closely tied to demographic growth and urban expansion.

Factually, construction acts as an indicator of business and government confidence in the medium-term prospects of the economy.

7. Market Services: Engine of Structural Changes

Growth rates of the volume of market services rendered:

• 2024 — 113.3%

• 2025 — 114.7%

Significance

The services sector:

• Remains the most dynamic;

• Strengthens its contribution to GDP;

• Indicates a gradual shift towards a more diversified economic model.

For entrepreneurs, this is the space of greatest growth and flexibility.

8. Foreign Trade: Acceleration and Expansion of Ties

Import:

• 2024 — 103.4%

• 2025 — 118.5%

Export:

• 2024 — 109.7%

• 2025 — 124.0%

Analytical Emphasis

The sharp acceleration of foreign trade:

• Testifies to the activation of international economic ties;

• Reflects the growth of external demand and import flows;

• Strengthens Uzbekistan’s role in regional and global supply chains.

9. Transport: Supporting Growth Infrastructure

Growth rates of the transport sphere:

• 2024 — 105.9%

• 2025 — 105.8%

Conclusion

The transport system develops synchronously with the economy, ensuring the logistical stability of trade, industry, and services.

10. Agrarian Sector: Stability Factor

Growth rates of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries:

• 2024 — 103.4%

• 2025 — 104.4%

The sector retains:

• Moderate growth;

• A stabilizing role;

• Significance for employment and food security.

11. Real Incomes of the Population: Growth Amidst Lower Inflation

Real growth rates of total per capita income:

• 2024 — 111.7%

• 2025 — 109.2%

Economic Context

Despite some deceleration, income growth:

• Remains positive;

• Occurs against the backdrop of declining inflation;

• Supports consumer demand and social stability.

12. Entrepreneurial Activity: Structural Changes

Number of enterprises and organizations (excluding farms and dehqan farms):

Operating:

• Jan 1, 2025 — 725,857

• Jan 1, 2026 — 671,664

Registered:

• Jan 1, 2025 — 424,840

• Jan 1, 2026 — 474,899

What the Data Reflects

The indicators point to:

• Active registration of new entities;

• Processes of business renewal and restructuring;

• A dynamic entrepreneurial environment.

Final Conclusion

According to the results of 2025, the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan demonstrates a balanced combination of growth, stability, and structural changes. GDP growth, slowing inflation, active construction, and the development of services and foreign trade are occurring against the backdrop of steady demographic expansion (~1.85% per year), which strengthens the long-term potential of the economy.

Source: National Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics