The economy of Uzbekistan in 2022 grew by 5.7%, follows from the World Bank report: “Global Economic Prospects“. According to the forecasts of World Bank experts, the level of GDP growth in Uzbekistan in 2023 will be 4.9% and in 2024 – 5.1%.

In 2023, a recession in Russia and sluggish growth in China will negatively affect the level of economic activity in Central Asia.

According to forecasts, in 2023 the growth of the regional economy will reach 3.9%.

In 2023, global economic growth will slow down to 1.7%, and not to 3%, as expected six months ago.

As noted in the latest edition of the World Bank’s World Economic Outlook report, global economic growth is slowing sharply amid high inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment and disruption to supply chains caused by military action in Ukraine.

Given the volatility of the economic environment, the emergence of any new adverse factor, such as higher-than-expected inflation accelerating, a sharp increase in interest rates to contain it, a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, or an escalation of geopolitical tensions, could push the global economy into recession. This means that for the first time in over 80 years, there would be two global recessions within a decade.

According to forecasts, in 2023 the global economy will grow by 1.7%, and in 2024 by 2.7%. The sharp slowdown in economic growth is expected to be widespread, with a downward revision to the 2023 outlook affecting 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.

Over the next two years, per capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%, a full percentage point below the 2010-2019 average. Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for approximately 60% of the world’s poorest people, is expected to have an average per capita income growth rate of only 1.2% in 2023-24, which means that poverty rates are more likely to will increase, not decrease.

“Amid a deteriorating global growth outlook, the development crisis is intensifying,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Emerging market and developing economies are facing a protracted period of slow economic growth as a result of high levels of debt and reduced investment inflows, as global capital flows will be absorbed by advanced economies that themselves are facing problems – extremely high levels of public debt and rising interest rates. Weak economic growth and lack of investment in enterprises will exacerbate the already difficult situation in education, health, poverty alleviation and infrastructure development, as well as the growing challenges associated with climate change.”

Growth is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2023 in advanced economies from 2.5% in 2022. In the past two decades, a similar slowdown in growth has preceded a global recession. In the US, growth is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2023, 1.9 percentage points lower than previously forecast and the lowest level since 1970, excluding periods of recessions. In the euro area, zero economic growth is expected in 2023, 1.9 percentage points lower than previous forecasts. In China, growth in 2023 is projected to be 4.3%, 0.9 percentage points lower than forecast.

Growth in emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, is expected to slow to 2.7% in 2023 from 3.8% in 2022 due to a significant weakening in external demand coupled with high inflation, currency depreciation, tightening of credit conditions and other constraining factors within countries.

By the end of 2024, emerging market and developing economies’ GDP will be about 6% lower than pre-pandemic projections. Global inflation is expected to slow down but remain above pre-pandemic levels.

The report provides, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the medium-term growth outlook for investment in emerging market and developing economies. Gross investment in these countries is likely to grow by around 3.5% on average between 2022 and 2024, more than half the average growth rate over the previous two decades. The report suggests possible approaches that governments could take to accelerate investment growth.

“The decline in investment is a serious problem, as it is associated with weak productivity and trade growth and negatively affects the overall economic outlook. Without strong and sustainable growth in investment, it is simply not possible to make significant progress towards achieving broader development and climate-related goals,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank Forecasts Group. “National policies to stimulate investment growth should be country-specific, but the starting point is always the establishment of a sound fiscal and monetary policy framework and comprehensive reforms aimed at improving the investment climate.”

The report also highlights the difficult situation in which 37 small states – countries with a population of up to 1.5 million people – find themselves. The recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries was deeper and the recovery much weaker than in other economies, partly due to the long-term tourism crisis. In 2020, output in small states declined by more than 11%, seven times more than other emerging market and developing economies. The report notes that small states often suffer losses from natural disasters, the average annual size of which is about 5% of GDP. This creates serious obstacles to economic development.

To improve long-term economic growth prospects, small-state governments should focus on building climate resilience, promoting effective economic diversification, and improving governance. The authors of the report call on the world community to help small states by maintaining the flow of official assistance funds to promote climate change adaptation and debt recovery.

Prospects for the development of regions:

East Asia and the Pacific. Growth is forecast to slow to 4.3% in 2023 before picking up to 4.9% in 2024.

Europe and Central Asia. In 2023, the growth rate of the regional economy is expected to decrease to 0.1%, after which they will increase to 2.8% in 2024.

Latin America and the Caribbean. Growth is projected to slow to 1.3% in 2023 before recovering to 2.4% in 2024.

Middle East and North Africa. Growth is projected to slow to 3.5% in 2023 and to 2.7% in 2024.

South Asia. Growth is projected to slow to 5.5% in 2023 before picking up marginally to 5.8% in 2024.

Africa south of the Sahara. Growth is expected to slow to 3.6% in 2023 and pick up to 3.9% in 2024.