I. Key take-away
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan has released the Financial Stability Report for the First Half of 2025. The report analyzes financial conditions and the financial and non-financial sectors, assesses risks, evaluates the resilience of the banking system through stress tests, and outlines the direction of macroprudential policy.
Despite global uncertainties, financial stability in Uzbekistan has been preserved. Macrofinancial conditions have eased, and the banking system has remained stable.
II. Global Environment: Easing Financial Conditions and Uncertainties
The global economy is maintaining a certain pace of growth, while inflation continues to decline.
Global financial conditions have eased. The principal external concerns relate to trade policy, where the reimposition of trade tariffs could negatively affect economic growth.
Key indicators and trends:
● Interest rates in global markets are declining;
● Trade policy uncertainties persist;
● National currencies in emerging economies are strengthening;
● Positive dynamics are observed in global equity markets.
III. Domestic Economy: Stabilizing Expectations
Domestic financial conditions are easing. Uzbekistan’s economy is demonstrating steady growth, driven by stronger domestic demand and a reduction in the negative balance of net exports.
Key indicators and trends:
● GDP growth: 7.2%
● Inflation: 8.7%
● Reduction in the trade deficit: 20%
● Appreciation of the national currency since the start of the year: 2.1%.
IV. Banking Sector: Stability and Resilience
The stress level in the banking system has decreased, liquidity has improved, and capital adequacy remains above the minimum requirements.
Key indicators and trends:
● Total regulatory capital adequacy ratio: 17.4%
● CET 1 capital adequacy ratio: 14.6%
● Share of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in total loans: 3.8%
● Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): 195%
● Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): 117%
● Return on equity (ROE): 10.8%
● Return on assets (ROA): 2%
● High-quality liquid assets to total assets: 18%
● Risk-weighted assets (RWA) density: 94%
V. Households: Positive Trends and Prudence
Despite the expansion of lending to individuals, payment discipline has been maintained. Household incomes have increased, and the debt burden has declined.
Key indicators and trends:
● Reduction in household debt burden: from 36% to 33%
● Growth in the number of individuals with bank loans (y/y): 15%
● Share of nonperforming loans in microdebts: 4.4%
VI. Corporate Sector: Positive Developments
Concerns in the corporate sector have eased somewhat. Among the large enterprises analyzed, liquidity and profitability indicators – as well as leverage ratios – have improved
Key indicators and trends:
● Corporate credit stock as a share of GDP: 24%
● Share of foreign-currency corporate loans: 63%
● Growth of the corporate credit stock: 14%
VII. Real Estate Market: Housing Price Corrections
The gap between the fundamental value of housing and market prices has narrowed. A notable increase in supply and a decline in speculative demand have been key factors driving price corrections in the real estate market.
Key indicators and trends:
● Gap between market and average fundamental prices: narrowed from 17% to 4%
● Year-on-year growth in market prices: -4%
● Growth rate of rents: 12%
● Growth in the number of housing sale contracts: 11%
● Growth in mortgage loans issued to the population: 18%
VIII. Macro Stress-Test Results
According to the solvency macro stress-test, under the baseline scenario capital adequacy ratios for the banking system may increase, while under the adverse scenario they may fall below minimum requirements. The liquidity macro stress-test indicates that banking system-wide liquidity remains stable.
Baseline scenario:
● Total regulatory capital adequacy ratio: 19.3%
● Leverage ratio: 13.2%
● Net cash inflow to total assets (national currency): 20%
● Net cash inflow to total assets (foreign currency): 21%
Adverse scenario:
● Total regulatory capital adequacy ratio: 8.4%
● Leverage ratio: 5.3%
● Net cash inflow to total assets (national currency): 9%
● Net cash inflow to total assets (foreign currency): 14%
IX. Macroprudential Policy: Capital Tools and Stability
Liquidity and borrower-based macroprudential instruments aimed at safeguarding the stability of the banking system are being continuously improved.
The importance of macroprudential capital tools that help mitigate potential cyclical systemic risks and strengthen banks’ solvency is increasing. Accordingly, capital adequacy requirements are being improved and capital buffers are being put into practice.
X. Conclusion: Balancing Financial Stability and Adaptability
The analysis shows that Uzbekistan’s financial system remains stable and can adapt quickly to new challenges.
Pillars of financial stability:
● Effective macroprudential policy;
● Responsible behavior by market participants;
● Transparent, open communication.
The second half of 2025 begins for the country’s financial system with steady growth, risks under control, and strengthening confidence among both the public and investors.