19 May, 2022

Monetary Policy Review for 1Q 2022: Dynamics of Economic Growth and Aggregate Demand

According to the report of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, in the first quarter of 2022, real GDP growth amounted to 5.8% compared to the same period last year. In particular, the volume of production of industrial goods increased by 5.7% (contribution to GDP growth – 1.7 percentage points), the volume of market services – by 15.9% (2.5 p.p.), agriculture – by 2.8% (0.7 p.p.), the construction sector – by 6.3% (0.4 p.p.).

With a significant stabilization of the situation with the pandemic in the country since the second half of February, the abolition of almost all quarantine restrictions since March has led to a further revival of economic activity.

High demand in the economy in the first quarter of this year was reflected in the growth of income from trade and paid services, transactions through the banking system, money transfers and export earnings.

In particular, in the first quarter of 2022, receipts from trade and paid services increased by 25.6% compared to the same period last year (cash receipts by 24.7%).

During this period, the volume of interbank transactions increased by 57.8%, while the volume of retail trade increased by 10.8%.

The volume of remittances received by the country in January-February 2022 increased by 21.1% compared to the same period last year, but then in March fell by 26.6% compared to the corresponding month of 2021, as a result of the influence of external geopolitical situation at the end of February, economic sanctions imposed on the Russian economy and sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

In general, in the first quarter of 2022, the country received a total of $1.5 billion of cross-border money transfers, which is 3.4% more than in the corresponding period of 2021, and plays an important role in increasing consumer and investment activity.

In the analyzed period, the real growth of investments in fixed assets amounted to 26.3%. At the same time, the volume of centralized investments (6.9% of total investments) decreased by 27.5% compared to the same period last year, while the volume of non-centralized investments increased by 33.6% and was one of the factors supporting the high economic and investment activity.

At the same time, the volume of investments at the expense of enterprises increased by 30.1% compared to the same period in 2022, foreign direct investment – by 68%, investments at the expense of bank loans – by 15.4%.

In the first quarter of 2022, household incomes in real terms increased by 5.4% compared to the corresponding period in 2021.

During this period, the average salary in the country increased by 19.1% compared to the first quarter of 2021 and amounted to 3.4 million soums.

The volume of production of consumer goods increased by 24.0%, production of food products – by 7.1%, non-food products – by 34.4%.

In the first quarter of 2022, loans totaling 32.9 trillion soums were allocated to the economy, which is 13.6% more compared to the same period in 2021. Including, loans to individuals amounted to 10.7 trillion soums (an increase of 46.7% compared to the corresponding period in 2020), to legal entities – 26.6 trillion soums (an increase of 4.1%).

In the first quarter of 2022, exports amounted to $5.8 billion ($2.8 billion excluding gold exports) and increased 2.4 times compared to the same period last year (by 15.9% excluding gold exports).

At the same time, an increase in textile exports by 20% ($127 million), services – by 21% ($98 million), food products – by 23% ($58 million), energy and petroleum products – by 32% ($35 million) served as an increase in exports compared to the corresponding period last year, even when calculating its volume without taking into account gold.

In the first quarter of 2022, imports amounted to $7.4 billion and increased by 45% compared to the same period last year. An increase in imports of machinery and equipment by 58% ($1.1 billion), chemical products by 45% ($375 million), food products by 51% ($307 million) and services by 46% ($168 million) served a significant increase in total imports compared to the same period last year.

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