The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan has published data for the first 9 months of 2025, demonstrating a significant strengthening of the economy’s external sector. The reporting period is characterized by a radical improvement in current account indicators, record growth in investment attractiveness, and an increase in the country’s “safety cushion” in the form of gold and foreign exchange reserves.
1. Balance of Payments: Impressive Deficit Reduction
A key indicator of economic stabilization was the sharp reduction in the current account deficit. For the first 9 months of 2025, it amounted to only 207.3 million US dollars. This is 15 times less than the figure for the same period last year, when the deficit reached 3.1 billion dollars.
Such positive dynamics were made possible due to export growth rates outpacing imports, as well as a significant inflow of cross-border payments.
2. Foreign Trade: Export Breakthrough
Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover continued to expand, demonstrating resilience to global challenges.
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Exports: The total volume of exports of goods and services increased by 32.8%, reaching 26.1 billion dollars. The main drivers of growth were favorable price conditions in global commodity markets (gold prices rose by 40%, silver by 29%, and copper by 5%), as well as an increase in the volume of international services provided to non-residents.
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Imports: The volume of imports grew by 15.4%, amounting to 36.7 billion dollars. The structure of imports reflects high investment activity in the country: supplies of machinery and equipment, chemical products, and raw materials necessary for industrial modernization are growing.
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Trade Balance: Thanks to the significant growth in export earnings, the negative trade balance deficit decreased by 12.6%, amounting to 10.6 billion dollars.
3. Income and Transfers
Substantial support for the balance of payments was provided by primary and secondary income receipts.
The growth in the volume of international money transfers contributed to the formation of a significant positive balance:
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The balance of secondary income amounted to 9.8 billion dollars.
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The balance of primary income stood at 624.9 million dollars.
These flows became an important financial buffer, ensuring the stability of the domestic foreign exchange market and the solvency of the population.
4. Investments: Confidence of International Capital
Financial account indicators testify to the high confidence of foreign investors in reforms in Uzbekistan.
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): The net inflow of foreign direct investment into the country’s economy grew 1.7 times compared to last year, amounting to 2.9 billion dollars.
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Portfolio Investment: Net attraction of portfolio investment increased 2.2 times, reaching 3.8 billion dollars. The main factor in this growth was successful operations with international bonds, confirming the interest of global players in Uzbekistan’s securities.
Under the influence of these factors, the negative balance of the financial account formed at the level of 955.8 million dollars.
5. International Investment Position and Reserves
Uzbekistan’s positions in the international arena have noticeably strengthened.
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Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves: Against the backdrop of rising global gold prices and effective asset management, the balance of international reserves as of October 1, 2025, reached 55 billion dollars. Since the beginning of the year, reserves have increased by almost 13.8 billion dollars, with the foreign currency portion of reserves growing by 1.5 billion dollars.
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Investment Position: The country’s net international investment position improved 1.6 times. As of October 1, resident assets exceeded liabilities by 21.4 billion dollars. The country’s foreign currency assets grew by 23% (to 118.5 billion dollars), outpacing the growth of external liabilities (+16%).
6. External Debt: Moderate Growth Strategy
External debt management demonstrates a balanced approach aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability.
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State External Debt: As of October 1, 2025, it amounted to 37.4 billion dollars. It is important to note the positive trend of slowing state debt growth rates: while it grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, growth was only 1.2% in the third quarter.
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Private Sector: The debt of the corporate sector and banks (attracted without state guarantees) amounted to 38 billion dollars. These funds are directed towards business expansion, working capital replenishment, and the implementation of investment projects.
International financial institutions and rating agencies assess Uzbekistan’s debt burden as moderate, noting the predominance of concessional long-term loans in the portfolio structure.
7. Optimistic Forecasts for 2026
The Central Bank predicts the continuation of the sustainable growth trajectory in the near future:
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Further export growth of 14–16% is expected, driven by tourism, the IT sector, transport and logistics, and Uzbekistan’s accession to the WTO.
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The volume of international money transfers is forecast to increase by 12–15% due to the diversification of labor migration geography.
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The current account deficit will remain in the safe range of 3–4% of GDP.
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The easing of global financial conditions and the reduction of interest rates in world markets will create favorable grounds for attracting cheap credit resources and reducing debt service costs.
The results of the first 9 months of 2025 confirm the correctness of the chosen economic course aimed at openness, investment attraction, and macroeconomic balance.