The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its updated “World Economic Outlook” forecast (January 2026), projecting stable global economic growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. These figures are close to the estimated 3.3% for 2025 and demonstrate the resilience of the global economy amid divergent forces.
Global Trends: Balancing Challenges and Opportunities
According to the IMF’s analysis, the relative stability of the global economy results from a complex interaction of factors. On one hand, adverse impacts come from shifts in trade policy and persistent uncertainty. On the other hand, significant support comes from a surge in technology and artificial intelligence (AI)-related investment, particularly in North America and Asia, as well as accommodative financial conditions and the private sector’s adaptability.
Key forecast changes:
- The 2026 growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points compared to the October projection
- The 2027 forecast remains unchanged
- Global inflation is expected to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027
Advanced Economies: Uneven Dynamics
Advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, with dynamics varying significantly:
The United States shows the most optimistic forecasts with 2.4% growth in 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus and lower policy rates. The AI-linked technology boom added approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025.
The Euro Area shows more modest growth rates (1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027), reflecting structural challenges and less benefit from the technology boom. Germany expects growth to accelerate to 1.1% in 2026 after a 0.5% economic contraction in 2024.
Japan projects a slowdown to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, despite the government’s announced fiscal stimulus package.
Emerging Markets: Sustained Growth Above 4%
Economic growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected at just above 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027.
China: The 2026 forecast has been raised by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5% due to stimulus measures and a year-long trade truce with the United States. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.0% in 2027 due to structural headwinds.
India: The 2025 growth figure has been revised up by 0.7 percentage points to an impressive 7.3% thanks to strong momentum in the second half of the year. Growth is projected to remain steady at 6.4% in 2026-2027.
Central Asia: Accelerating Economic Growth
The Middle East and Central Asia region demonstrates positive dynamics. According to the IMF forecast, economic growth in the region will accelerate from 3.7% in 2025 to 3.9% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027.
Growth factors include:
- Increased oil production
- Resilient local demand
- Ongoing economic reforms
- Improved macroeconomic stability
Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, following impressive 6.2% growth in 2025, expects a moderation to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, which still significantly exceeds global averages.
Outlook for Uzbekistan
Although Uzbekistan is not highlighted separately in the published IMF forecast tables, the country’s economy, as part of the Central Asia region, continues to benefit from:
- Ongoing structural reforms
- Improved investment climate
- Economic diversification
- Development of non-commodity sectors
- Digital transformation
Uzbekistan, which has been implementing consistent reforms since 2017, is well-positioned to capitalize on favorable regional trends and attract foreign investment amid the technology boom and realignment of global supply chains.
Risks and Challenges
The IMF notes that risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside:
Main risks:
- Technology sector: Potential reevaluation of AI expectations could trigger financial market corrections
- Trade policy: Escalation of trade tensions could prolong uncertainty
- Geopolitics: Escalating tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, or other regions
- Fiscal sustainability: High public debt levels in major economies could put pressure on interest rates
Upside factors:
- Rapid AI adoption could boost global growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2026
- Progress in trade negotiations would reduce tariffs and uncertainty
- Accelerated structural reforms could sustainably lift growth potential
IMF Policy Recommendations
To foster stability and sustainable growth, the IMF recommends:
Fiscal policy:
- Restoring fiscal buffers
- Commitment to medium-term fiscal consolidation
- Improving expenditure efficiency
- Rational use of industrial policy measures
Monetary policy:
- Adapting policy to preserve price stability
- Maintaining central bank independence
- Gradual reduction of policy rates in countries where inflation is near target
Structural reforms:
- Upskilling the workforce
- Reducing barriers to labor mobility
- Improving business regulation
- Promoting innovation and digital transformation
Implications for Investors and Business
The IMF forecast points to continued resilience of the global economy despite multiple challenges. For investors and business, this means:
- Regional diversification: Central Asia presents attractive opportunities with projected growth above the global average
- Technology focus: Investment in technology and AI remains a key growth driver
- Risk management: Need to account for geopolitical and trade uncertainty
- Long-term perspective: Structural reforms in developing countries create a foundation for sustainable growth
In the context of a complex global environment, the Central Asia region, including Uzbekistan, possesses significant potential for attracting investment and implementing projects across various economic sectors, particularly in technology, infrastructure, and non-commodity industries.
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), “World Economic Outlook Update,” January 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026