An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has concluded its visit to Uzbekistan, noting the country’s sustainable economic development and the importance of continuing structural reforms.
An IMF staff team led by Mr. Yasser Abdih visited Uzbekistan from November 17 to 25, 2025, to discuss the current economic situation and development prospects. Following the visit, the Fund’s experts highly praised the country’s economic policy, noting significant GDP growth, declining inflation, and strengthened foreign economic positions.
Key Economic Indicators
Uzbekistan’s economy continues to demonstrate confident growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, real GDP increased by 7.6 percent year-on-year. The main drivers of growth were active investment and high household consumption.
Positive trends are also observed in price dynamics. Despite strong demand, inflation continues to decline. By the end of October 2025, headline inflation stood at 7.8 percent in annual terms, while core inflation slowed to 6.6 percent. This was facilitated by tight monetary policy, exchange rate appreciation, and the fading effect of last year’s energy tariff increases.
The country’s external economic position has also strengthened. The current account deficit narrowed significantly in the first half of the year due to high global gold prices, growth in non-commodity exports, and remittance inflows. International reserves remain at a high level, covering 12 months of prospective imports.
Forecasts and Outlook
The IMF assesses Uzbekistan’s economic outlook as positive, with risks broadly balanced. Real GDP growth is expected to exceed 7 percent in 2025 and remain strong at around 6 percent in 2026.
Experts project that inflation will continue to gradually decline and reach the Central Bank’s target of 5 percent by the end of 2027.
Potential risks include possible economic overheating due to procyclical spending of windfall revenues (including from gold sales) and the expansion of preferential lending programs. External risks are related to geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price volatility. At the same time, accelerated structural reforms and increased capital inflows could further improve economic indicators.
Economic Policy Recommendations
The IMF emphasizes that the current period of high economic growth and favorable gold prices is an opportune moment to strengthen macro-financial stability and build buffers.
Fiscal Policy: Experts recommend limiting the growth of government expenditures funded by windfall revenues. The authorities remain committed to the consolidated budget deficit target of 3 percent of GDP for the current and next year. An important step will be broadening the tax base, including by reducing tax incentives and strengthening the fight against the shadow economy.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) has appropriately maintained the policy rate at 14 percent since March 2025. The IMF recommends maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation is on a firm downward trajectory toward the target level. The move towards greater exchange rate flexibility is also welcomed, as it enhances the economy’s resilience to external shocks.
Structural Reforms: To sustain long-term growth, it is necessary to continue the privatization and restructuring of large state-owned enterprises, improve the business environment, and develop competition. A significant achievement is the progress in the accession process to the World Trade Organization (WTO), targeted for March 2026. Successes in implementing anti-corruption measures, including the adoption of the conflict of interest law, were also noted.
Source: International Monetary Fund