Access to quality and comfortable housing remains one of the key priorities of Uzbekistan’s public policy. Amid global instability and persistent inflation, real estate prices in most countries, including Uzbekistan, continue to outpace income growth. Against this backdrop, the development of mortgage lending and the formation of a balanced housing market become especially important.
Between 2017 and 2024, commercial banks in Uzbekistan issued mortgage loans totaling over 84 trillion soums to 478,200 citizens for the purchase of apartments on the primary and secondary markets, as well as for the construction (or reconstruction) and renovation of individual housing. As of January 1, 2024, the outstanding balance of these loans reached 67.7 trillion soums, a sevenfold increase compared to 2017.
To stimulate housing supply during the same period, commercial banks provided 19 trillion soums in loans to contractors for the construction of 5,700 multi-apartment buildings, comprising a total of 266,000 apartments.
As a result of growing activity from both the public and private sectors in the housing market, the ratio of outstanding mortgage loans to GDP rose to 4.8% as of January 1, 2024, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to early 2017.
A positive trend is also observed in the growth of the ratio of existing housing units to the number of households: from 0.96 in 2020 to 1.01 in 2024.
At the same time, the family unit remains a key driver of real housing demand. Analysis shows that at the beginning of the year, the ratio of housing units to families stood at 0.76, meaning that the remaining 24% of families will continue to generate sustained housing demand in the coming years.
Taking into account Uzbekistan’s natural population growth, rising incomes, growing demand for housing, and ongoing urbanization, total housing demand is expected to exceed supply in the medium term.
These conclusions underscore the need to increase investment by both the public and private sectors, ensure a reasonable balance between household income and housing prices, and expand the scale and reach of mortgage programs.
Mortgage Market: 2024 Results
According to the 2024 Mortgage Lending Review by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in 2024, the volume of issued mortgage loans amounted to 17.1 trillion soums, which is 247 billion soums or 1.5% more than in 2023. In particular:
-
61% of all mortgages were used to purchase housing in the primary market.
-
35% were financed from the commercial banks’ own resources.
-
56% were issued through centralized government resources.
-
9% were issued through mechanisms of the Uzbekistan Mortgage Refinancing Company (UzMRC).
The growing share of bank-funded mortgages signals a gradual strengthening of market-based financing mechanisms.
As of January 1, 2025, the total outstanding volume of mortgage loans reached 67.7 trillion soums, up 16% year-on-year. Mortgages now account for 12.7% of the total banking loan portfolio.
Structural Shifts in Mortgage Lending
-
The share of borrowers with down payments exceeding 50% rose to 15%.
-
Loan terms are shifting towards shorter durations: the share of loans with terms under 10 years reached 17%.
-
Around 24% of mortgages were subsidized by the state. The total volume of subsidized loans in 2024 was 4.1 trillion soums.
Price Stabilization Mechanisms in the Housing Market
Due to active construction, housing price growth has slowed. While prices in the primary market rose by 39.6% in 2023, in 2024 the increase was limited to 11.4%. In the secondary market, prices rose by 6.3% (compared to 35.1% in 2023). Key price stabilization factors include:
-
234 trillion soums in construction investments in 2024;
-
100,300 new apartments put into operation (29% more than in 2023);
-
Improved housing availability – 18.9 m² per person (vs. 15.7 m² in 2017);
-
Increased household income: average monthly wages grew by 18%, and per capita income by 20.4%.
Affordability and Purchasing Power
The ratio of average housing prices per square meter to average monthly wages in Tashkent fell from 1.98 to 1.77, indicating improved affordability. Across regions, this ratio ranges from 1.24 (Karakalpakstan) to 2.73 (Samarkand region). Similar improvements are observed when comparing housing prices to GRP and per capita income.
LTV Ratio and Risk Reduction
As of early 2025, the average Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio stood at 63%, down from the previous year. This reflects:
-
A higher share of borrowers with large down payments;
-
Growing income levels, allowing for early repayments: in 2024, early repayments totaled 6.8 trillion soums, 2.4 times higher than the scheduled payments;
-
The number of early repaid loans increased to 23,700 (up from 23,100 in 2023).
Market Outlook: Demand Will Keep Growing
Housing demand is expected to continue growing due to:
-
Demographic growth: population reached 37.5 million (+743,000 year-on-year);
-
High marriage rate: 272,000 new marriages in 2024, against 100,300 apartments delivered;
-
Housing supply still lagging behind demand: the ratio of households to families remains at 0.76.
Continued demographic pressure and steady economic growth (GDP forecast for 2025–2026: 5.5–6.5%) are expected to drive real estate demand.
Mortgage and Investment Attractiveness
The growing number of repeat mortgage borrowers (up to 3.9%) signals the increasing investment appeal of real estate. This is further supported by rental returns in Tashkent:
-
Gross Rental Yield – 8.8%;
-
Price-to-Rent Ratio – 11.4 years;
-
Price-to-Income Ratio – 9.4 years.
For comparison: the Price-to-Income ratio is 17.6 in Moscow and 22.9 in Dushanbe.
Government Role: Reforms and Strategy
The state continues to actively support the housing market through large-scale programs:
-
Build 1 million apartments by 2030;
-
Develop “New Uzbekistan” residential areas in 100 locations;
-
Allocate 20.9 trillion soums for mortgages in 2025;
-
Construct 135,000 new apartments with a total area of 8.1 million m².
New restrictions also apply: since May 2024, subsidized mortgage loans from the budget are available only to citizens who have not previously received mortgage support.
Conclusion
Uzbekistan’s housing market shows signs of stable development: construction volumes are rising, financing is becoming more market-oriented, and housing is gradually becoming more affordable. However, amid continued population growth and urbanization, it is vital to further expand housing supply and enhance support mechanisms for demand, especially among young families and vulnerable groups.